I think your are over-estimating the importance of motion control. Moving is not new. Using movement to do things is not new. Gamers don't want to move while playing. In fact, they hate it. Once people realize that you're still playing similar games and the graphics aren't anywhere near as good, the Wii's popularity will trail off. It may sell well for the first two or three months, maybe six, but I don't think it will do particularly well in the long term. I think it will be a fad.

Couldn't resist. xD

Lucas is saying 60 million total by the end of 2008. Everyone thought he was crazy when he predicted 20 million by the end of this year. That number will be close. If it happens then maybe he isn't so crazy.

My my you really do not listen to me (or anyone else) do you.

maybe you missed the 3 or 4 times i have explained this to you so i will try again.

Nintendo has been producing 1.8 million p/month since August or September, yet the past 3 months have not seen them come close to 1.8 million sold.....where exactly are those extra Wiis? lost in the post?

My second way of trying to explain it to you revolves around Nintendoes own estimations of what they will supply to retail by March 08, that being a total of 23.34 million Wiis.... I am quite sure Nintendo won't sell more than 4.5 million in those three months..... If you take that away from 23.3 you get 18.8 million.

even if you assume that in Jan/Feb/Mar they put out exactly 1.8mln each month, for a total of 5.4 million sold, that means a minimum of 17.9 million before 2008 starts. ABSOLUTE MINIMUM.
That of course is based off Nintendos usually conservative estimates of course...so it could well be higher.... 18 million is the 'target number' (read minimum) as you put it....the rest depends on Nintendos extra stock.

Considering the Wii sold over 600k last week, and considering a large amount of areas are now, once again, are in short supply, demand should still be high.

Supposedly production is at 1.8 million per month, that's really only going to be 2-2.2 million more by year's end.... unless Nintendo has been stocking a little... I only really see 17 million, unless a magic card is played.

I see demand high enough to sell 24 million by year's end, but the units are on the shelves. I mean, look at DS's amazing sales right now. 1.325 million sold in one week alone? That's insane. Wii could get close to that in due time.

 I'm not knocking sony owners, just poiting out that Wii is in a different league

Hey DMeisterJ, casual gamer does not equal grandmas. GTA is one of the most casual games in the world. A friend of mine, 24, has an XBox with maybe only 4 or 5 games, and mostly crappy games because he's casual and just buys maybe 1 random game a year. But he loved GTA and would come over to play it. He wouldn't do A SINGLE MISSION. He'd just steal a car and drive around and find secret items and look for the fastest car and the coolest jumps. He could do this for 3 hours straight. He wouldn't even save his game, but he'd come over later and do it all over again. He was also not a grandmother.

Nintendo is showing third parties the way by making a good mix of hardcore games like Zelda, Metroid, Mario, and Smash alongside a good mix of casual games like Wii Play, Mario Party 8, Big Brain Academy, and Wii Sports. Third parties are paying attention to what sells, and the biggest games are going to be Wii Play and Galaxy, which are completely opposite on your magical mythical casual/hardcore spectrum.

Well not to mention a lot of the developers put in gamecube and classic control controls as well.

As for 500 Million....

wha?

I just don't think people are understanding the flaws in this. I hear people saying well they'll just double their production. I don't think I've ever read a sentence that is more true to the quote, "easier said than done". First of all Wii in its first year was only looking at about 17-18 million shipped. 17.5 million if we go by fiscal year. So doubling that would not give us 40 million.

Secondly the most the DS has ever had shipped in a year was about 25-26 million thereabouts and that's a record. DS's are easy to produce and that sold out. Now we are saying a harder to produce Wii will ship more in 1 year and all sellout. That's ludacris.

If Wii is lucky by the end of 2008 it'll have 45 million shipped. And guys that is really pushing it. Having 25 million shipped in a year is a hell of a lot for a gaming console. Not only mentioning that this has to have demand stay that high as well.

Now I'm also seeing yall say 500 million lifetime for Wii? Hell I don't even think the Ipod hit that much in all of its version combined. I think what people are saying the main reason being China? Hello people China will never get to levels that it should be. Too much damn piracy over there. Buy the offbrand cheaper and they can copy the exact same thing. Piracy will stop that market from really growing into anything larger than the Japanese market. Unless some serious restrictions start happening over there. Fact of the matter is 500 million is impossible. Not only that but Wii wouldn't be out on the market long enough to even hit that. That'd be suggesting Wii will be out way past 2020. Even 250 million is impossible. I mean seriously the highest limit I'll allow people to predict for Wii is 200 million, and to me that is impossible. I suggest people stick with the range of anywhere from 60 million to 150 million. Otherwise we are going insane in both directions. I mean I swear next prediction is going to be 1 billion and that 1/8 of the world will have a Wii. Guys it huge, but not that huge.

Lol.

Regarding the 500 million number, it's just John's upper bound for the Wii. His minimum is 240 million, which means two times the PS2. I don't see why it's not possible (although the Wii will hopefully not fail as much as the PS2, which many people bought twice or more).