I just don't think people are understanding the flaws in this. I hear people saying well they'll just double their production. I don't think I've ever read a sentence that is more true to the quote, "easier said than done". First of all Wii in its first year was only looking at about 17-18 million shipped. 17.5 million if we go by fiscal year. So doubling that would not give us 40 million.
Secondly the most the DS has ever had shipped in a year was about 25-26 million thereabouts and that's a record. DS's are easy to produce and that sold out. Now we are saying a harder to produce Wii will ship more in 1 year and all sellout. That's ludacris.
If Wii is lucky by the end of 2008 it'll have 45 million shipped. And guys that is really pushing it. Having 25 million shipped in a year is a hell of a lot for a gaming console. Not only mentioning that this has to have demand stay that high as well.
Now I'm also seeing yall say 500 million lifetime for Wii? Hell I don't even think the Ipod hit that much in all of its version combined. I think what people are saying the main reason being China? Hello people China will never get to levels that it should be. Too much damn piracy over there. Buy the offbrand cheaper and they can copy the exact same thing. Piracy will stop that market from really growing into anything larger than the Japanese market. Unless some serious restrictions start happening over there. Fact of the matter is 500 million is impossible. Not only that but Wii wouldn't be out on the market long enough to even hit that. That'd be suggesting Wii will be out way past 2020. Even 250 million is impossible. I mean seriously the highest limit I'll allow people to predict for Wii is 200 million, and to me that is impossible. I suggest people stick with the range of anywhere from 60 million to 150 million. Otherwise we are going insane in both directions. I mean I swear next prediction is going to be 1 billion and that 1/8 of the world will have a Wii. Guys it huge, but not that huge.