@ Non Seqour

Hey, thanks for pointing out my bad math. I'm actually quite ashamed.


Anyways, guys, these numbers are basically minimum sales totals by the end of the year. Why is that? Well, we know that sales counts will rise considerably for all consoles between now and year's end.

These numbers are pure mathematical estimations, assuming that sales will continue only at current rates, with an additional 10% tacked on (and 10% is pretty measly). These are not my predictions. I predict higher numbers for all three consoles (much higher for PS3 and Wii, only a little higher for 360).

 However, given that these are statistical estimations, I can tell you now that it can be guaranteed you'll see Wii totals of at least 18.5m by the end of 2007. Yes, I guarantee it. I guarantee the 360 will sell at least 15.5m, and I guarantee the PS3 will hit 8m.

As for Nintendo and the whole "1.8m" thing, yes, that's all they're manufacturing, but that doesn't mean they didn't have a bunch stockpiled for the holiday rush. They've been manufacturing extras galore for the past year now, and saving them for the holiday rush. This is how every single company in the world works, if they make good "gift items". Any item that can be expected to sell particularly well during Christmastime, the company in charge of that item will hold some stock back through the entire year so they can meet holiday demand. It's a very simple business concept.

With that said, I believe they have more than enough stockpiled. Think about it. Back in May, they upped their production rates to somewhere around 1.5m, yet the Wii continued selling at an average of .9m-1m each month (give or take). Where was that extra .5-.6m?

I believe Nintendo will ship somewhere around 5 million consoles between now and Jan. 31. And I believe they will all sell out.

 They only have to have 3 million stockpiled to hit 20m since they'll also have the 2.1m or so that they normally produce in a 5 week period. If they've been saving 800,000 a month since mid-August they should have 2.5m stockpiled. If they managed to get their production up to 1.8 million before then, they should have 3m or more.

 It normally takes 20 days for consoles to reach stores after being produced. However, Nintendo and the retailers receiving the consoles can shorten that time if they pay more. That would allow some of the consoles that would normally arrive after Christmas to arrive before Christmas. I'm not sure if Nintendo, being as tight with their money as they are, will expedite their shipping but I'm fairly sure retailers will.

It's not the sales rate we need to concern ourselves with, but the supply rate.  It's clear from looking at the last couple of weeks that Nintendo could be shipping 5x as much console as they had been all year and it would still sell out before shops open or within the first few hours.  There's *no* slack in the Wii demand.  If Nintendo could get 5 million units on the market in December, it would sell them.

It sounds like some crazy, ridiculous prediction.  But it's supported by what we're observing in the market right now.

I thought Reggie said, this holiday season will have even more Wii's then last one, they had like 3-4 mil wii's then, so we can say they will have at the very least 4 mil wiis shipped out there. it could possibly hit the 20 mil target, don't think its impossible, though i do agree with the 18.5 mil that a lot of people are saying.

They'll get really close to selling 20 million Wii's this year, allthough they'll probably won't make it and will end up around 19,5 million.

and there were "people" saying Ps3 won't go above 6 million this year...

 Lots of people actually. Oh ye of little faith. yes, Jesus works for Sony now, took over for crazy Ken!!

I think stockpiling wouldn't be 'saving up for a time of year' but rather, 'we have a bunch of japanese consoles not selling, so we'll shift production to another region'.  Or perhaps stores stockpiling for black friday, or the sunday after.

Nintendo recently denied the rumors, yet again, that Wiis have been stockpiled.