Estimating that the Japanese results will show Wii hardware sales at around 45,000 (a 36% climb from last week), if the Wii continues selling through Jan. 1 at the rates it's moving, it will end up selling in the vicinity of 3.5 million more consoles between now and the New Year.

That would place it at approximately 18.5m total.

This is also assuming that sales won't continue drastically growing as we move further into the holiday season, which I believe they very likely will. I'm going to leave my personal predictions out of this thread, however.

In a similar vein, looking at 360's sales, we can expectit to finish this year with an additional 1.8-1.9m console sales at current rates, with about 15.5m total worldwide. Meanwhile, the PS3 will likely end with 1.7m additional, finishing around 8m total worldwide.

Again, these are all rough estimates based on how sales are going now that we've officially entered into the holiday buying season. Things COULD possibly change drastically, and I wouldn't be surprised if each of those numbers end up being low. However, looking at the way numbers ran this past week (and weeks preceeding), it looks like the trend I'm estimating will be fairly accurate.

FINAL ESTIMATED COUNT, DEC. 31, 2007 @ 2359: Wii - 18.5m, 360 15.5m, PS3 8m.

 Edited because my total Wii estimate was incorrect. Sorry.

On the outside 18 million is certainly possible for the Wii by December 31st. I'm thinking around 17 million. I think after that we'll see demand gradually decrease until June '08 where they'll finally hit a plateu. I think the X360 and the PS3 have already hit a plateu, though they should both see a decent increase in sales during December. For the X360 and the PS3, aside from major game releases and price cuts the sales numbers should be roughly the same in '08 as '07 on average.

Problem is that this sales rate will NOT stay flat.

You're looking at the foot an upsloping hill.

Japan kicks in starting next week after Wii Fit drops down.

John Lucas 

@ John

I've just realized that on December 31 your all signature will be made of John Lucas was WRONG sentences

BTW I have a question to you. Obviously you assume that main factor this year is Wii-Fit. How much Nintendo will sell if Wii-Fit won't deliver. I mean there won't be any trumpling - just a slow start - 60k.  Yes, I do know you believe it will start strong but what is your prediciton for Wii without Wii-Fit impact. 17 million? 

I like your predictions thetonestarr.
It sounds good to me.

... iam working hard on John Lucas new shrine ...

1.8 million of console distributed from Nintendo to November
north America: 1,000,000 Wii
Japan 200,000 Wii
Other 600,000 Wii

Nintendo has only been able to produce about 1.8mil per month, and I haven't heard anything that will be able to increase it. There may have been some stockpiling, but not enough for sales to keep going up. Nintendo already says they plan to keep production at this rate until the end of March. If it's still selling out then, maybe they will increase it.

Pretty close, and roughly in line with what most people have been predicting all year (well - at least last few months).

I do think your Wii figure will be around 1.0-1.5m higher though - with the 360/PS3 numbers roughly spot on.

5 weeks to go...

The Wii has 14.86m worldwide now so maintaining the current rate (0.7m for 5 weeks) it would be in the vicinity of 18.5m not 17.5m.

The PS2 sold 610,000 six weeks before the end of 2005 (I'm counting the week ending January 1 as a week in 2005) and it went on to sell nearly 4.4 million in the next 5 weeks. Typically the strongest sales are in the 2 weeks before Christmas so Nintendo will probably increase shipments then to keep retailers happy.

I'm expecting the total to be in the mid 19m range by year's end with 20m not being impossible.