I think that we will see 4 Xbox models:

1. Simple model without Natal, without HDD + wireless remote = U$ 150
2. Simple model + Natal, without HDD + wireless remote = U$ 200
3. Advance model without Natal + HDD + wireless remote, = U$ 250
4. Advance model + Natal + HDD + wireless remote, = U$ 300

My question is, Is it possible to make a Xbox without the wireless controler and only with Natal bundled? If yes, then we will see a Simple model + Natal, without HDD for U$ 150~170.

I can assure you that's not gonna happen. No chance that there'll be 4 models. 0 chance.
(of course the current Natal free models will hang around for a lil while into before theyre sold out after Natal release)

I dont know myself what will happen exactly with SKUs, but you'll have to come up with better suggestions.

Want to know why the Price dropped in Spain and Portugal ?

Its not a real pricecut. Its a pricedrop aslong as the current units last. They just want to get finally rid of the 360s in Spain and Portugal because noone buys them. 

Ofcourse MS will see a push but definetly not because of Gears of War 3. Its the third iteration on the console people who liked Gears of war already bought a Xbox360.

With Halo Reach I am not so sure anymore since it could be that people who hated Halo 3 will buy an Xbox360  because they like Halo Reach. I expect atleast a decent bumb through Halo Reach.

There are two things left now. Slim and Pricedrop and nothing is confirmed yet. Natal is another thing its effect is unpredictable. I honestly believe it will flop because nothing I have seen until know was impressive or looked like fun to me. But that could also change after they showed the right software and I could end up buying it together with a Slim360. 

I told you so.

Did they announce a price drop ?

Not with Kinects price of 149.99.

That is just crazyness.

Fewer sales...

More importantly, I don't think Gears is going to move hardware, it is going to be awesome though, which is what I care about