well it's hard to imagine them thinking the DS will sell 3 million more this fiscal year, and the same amount of software despite the sales trending downwards. The wii looks about right though.

Article up, I have attach rates and some other info.

As the opening post says, the 150m SW for DS and 30m HW for DS includes 3DS HW / SW in the fiscal year. You should also note that the Wii sw forecast doesn't include bundled games - and thats now Wii Sports and Wii Sports Resort - not just Wii Sports. So its actually a fairly bullish software forecast.

Yea I was wondereing on that but that really clarifies it and really is a strong prediction for software.  I'm wondering if it is due to having high hopes for unannounced games such as said vitality sensor software.  Or of course the big push for Galaxy 2 and the expected colossal push of Zelda Wii.  But definitely a good software prediction and a steady hardware prediction.  However, I think if the Black Wii's release in America is strong enough, might even see some of those predictions upped come end of July/early August when Q1 results are in. 

Seems Vgchartz is perfectly in line with its Wii numbers. DS numbers are a bit overtracked though, mainly in Others. But surprisingly enough most of that difference is already present at the end of 2009.

Ack!  I meant to point this out too (1st time Nintendo's excluded bundled games iirc).  Thnx!

Agreed.  After having to adjust down last year, I think Nintendo's preferring to error on the side of caution this year.  Better to adjust up if you have to adjust at all...

My guess on the 3DS / DS split is something like this (I'm sure they'll break it down eventually)

HW

DS - 24m

3DS - 6m

SW

DS - 135m

3DS - 15m

Also, we can posit that Wii software is even more of a beast than shown, because in early 2008 Iwata said that through the end of 2007, Virtual Console downloads worldwide had topped 10m - http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6185358.html back when the Wii base was only 20m.

There are likely at least an additional 20-30m downloaded WiiWare/ Virtual Console games beyond the 544m Wii games shipped worldwide, and thats enough to push the overall Wii attach rate to ~8 worldwide.

Iiiiinteresting.

Looks like Nintendo is predicting the Wii's real decline starting this year - in a manner of speaking, anyways.

Nah, that number is gonna be bumped sometime throughout the fiscal year. No way Nintendo is gonna only ship 18 million Wiis - I think they're being VERY conservative after having to adjust downward last year.

I expect Wii sales this fiscal year to top the 20.53 it sold last year, even if ever so slightly.

I think Wii will be lucky to get to those number when you know that other consoles (Sony and MS) will be releasing some motion control stuff very soon.