Only if it Xenoblade comes out in the US, by the end of the year :D

The Black Wii didn't do much in Eu/Others so why should it in the US? I think there will be several weeks of Wii outselling HD but not many months. All in all, the 50% marketshare it was guaranteed to have by the end of 2008 has moved farther away this year and seems unlikely to ever be attained at this point.

Well I doubt the color will have much affect on the sales increases of the system. Color preferential isn't as big on consoles compared to handhelds, unless of course the system color was ugly to begin with (maybe get away with that argument with the purple gamecubes). Really the kicker with this is WSR and the big one being motion plus. However pricedrops are easier to sell to people and obviously easier to advertise which is why $200 Wii exploded sales (or for the $300 PS3 exploded sales as well). It's hard to even think that the "slimness" of the PS3 even helped sales all that much, although arguable in Japan I suppose.

But considering this isnt' a pricedrop, the point now is to sell the deal. That's a litle trickier but an easy way to do it is through strong commercial and in store advertising about the deal. Already doing that in stores and I expect when it releases (and along with Galaxy 2 advertising) to be pushing this a lot. Might actually make Galaxy 2 quite a system pusher due to it being tied in. Being able to advertise that your system not only comes with 2 games but an accessory you'll need for the biggest games later in the year is very strong advertising.

But it's that last part that needs to be discussed. Nintendo is really going to have to show off some big motion plus games soon to really help keep that deal looking very good. We already know of Zelda Wii, but possibly some big 3rd party games or maybe another one from them would strengthen it.

Overall, I can't say how it'll perform in the next few months, but obviously May is going to look pretty strong for the system. Has the biggest exclusive releasing of all 3 and of course this new deal to get more customers on board. Should be able to top both hardware and software in the month of May. As for outdoing both system combined, well this is only America where this is happening, but doing well enough in Europe to possibly allow that to happen. Long term wise, pack-ins like this go much further than pricedrops. Pricedrops really have shown this gen to be big for the holiday seasons and then kinda lay off during the normal months. Mainly because it doesn't really give incentive. This can really get people buying it because it sells to them directly in any time periods (2 games and an important accessory with your purchase along with 2 colors to choose from). This might be able to help Nintendo survive the long summer which they weren't able to do last year, and probably better than say Sony or MS although MS's bundle right now is helping it a lot in America.

I'm not sure if it'll keep a 50% marketshare throughout the next few months, but I do think it is going to seem a lot better than it was going and given the 2 big exclusives in Metroid at the end of Summer and Galaxy 2 right before it starts, should do fairly well.

At the rate things are going, Wii should be back to > HD levels soon, but it'll have more to do with Galaxy 2 and other upcoming titles than it will have to do with a new color. Though $200 for a black Wii + Wii Sports + Wii Sports Resort is an enticing deal, will probably bring in more than a few sales..