Congrats. On of the most rational post I've read in a while (not crap like FFXIII sold a ton, PS3 is teh JRPG heaven!).

Pretty much this.   DS is the real successor to FC/SFC/PS/PS2 this gen, with a very competitive RPG lineup in particular.  And what DS doesn't get, PSP or the HD twins have generally scooped up (for various reasons).

That said, Wii's not doing totally awful in the JRPG category and has been heating up recently (Fragile Dreams, Monster Hunter Tri, Arc Rise Fantasia, Shiren the Wanderer, Sakura Wars, etc). Coming up we have Xenoblade, Tales of Graces, The Last Story and (eventually) Dragon Quest X.  And also (if you count it) the new Zelda. That alone makes it basically an essential purchase for any big JRPG fan.

While true, I think the context and timing of each release played HEAVILY into that.  Vesperia PS3 came right in time to perfectly ride the Slim relaunch and momentum (and was arguably the first "big" game to do so), had fantastic word of mouth from the previous 360 release (plus enough new content to ensure every hardcore Tales  fan rebought it), and launched alongside the First Strike film (with TONS of co-promotion).  Graces meanwhile launched a week before FFXIII (something JP retailers even called suicide, and chiefly blamed the weak launch on) and was almost unplayably buggy (to the point where Namco had reissue new discs... 3 months later).  In Graces favor was a new game (from Team Destiny, arguably the more successful of the two Tales teams), and both games got system bundles (as did Vesperia 360 originally).

I still think timing was the biggest factor though.  Had Vesperia PS3 and Graces each launched six months earlier or six months later, I think they'd have probably sold around the same (say ~250-300k).  Had Vesperia PS3 launched a week before FFXIII, it might not have even outsold the 360 version.

I think it's very believable. It's been the same game for the last 24. Even 24 years of bombarding a game genre with the same game is enough to slow down sales of everything, but the big names.

Top selling home console jrpgs (not including handhelds in this)

Final Fantasy XIII (PS3) 3.68m
Pokemon Battle Revolution (Wii) 1.45m
Monster Hunter Tri (Wii) 1.21m
Final Fantasy XIII (X360) 1.14m
Valkyria Chronicles (PS3) 0.89m
Lost Odyssey (X360) 0.83m
Dragon Quest Swords (Wii) 0.64m
The Last Remnant (X360) 0.63m
Star Ocean 4 (X360) 0.62m
White Knight Chronicles (PS3) and Infinite Undiscovery (X360) 0.57m each

The Wii has a Pokemon Stadium type of game, Monster Hunter Tri and a Dragon Quest spin-off on there. What do those three games have in common? They have franchise name value.

That`s the thing. Of course most of the Wii jrpgs aren`t going to sell all that well. They don`t have much name value or advertising to support the games. If you put a game with a name on the Wii, it`ll sell. This doesn`t always work out for spin-offs though. It depends. The Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles and Chocobo`s Dungeons games didn`t sell all too well. But Dragon Quest Swords did pretty well in Japan.

Other than the big three upcoming Wii JRPGs I'd say the Wii's future looks pretty bright. DQX will probably bring along 1 or 2 other JRPGs with it, Inazuma Eleven Break is coming and Sword of Legendia has been confirmed recently to still be in development. So I would think by the end of this gen the Wii will be looking pretty good.

Not as good as SNES, PS, or PS2 obviously, but good.

You're missing Super Paper Mario.  It's also a pure Action RPG and it would place a somewhat close 2nd at the moment.  When this generation's over, Wii will probably have more million selling JRPGs (SPM, DQX, DQM Battle Road, MH3) than PS3 & 360 combined (FFXIII, FFvsXIII).

FF's slowed slightly too, though that's likely due to the platform selection.  Had it been on DS, PSP or possibly even Wii, I bet it could've matched or exceeded what FFX/XII managed last gen.

Meanwhile DQ has posted a record high this gen (not just for the series, but for non-Nintendo games in general), MoHun's blown up and gotten HUGE and sparked a subgenre renassance, Pokemon's risen significantly from last gen, and we have actual new million selling IPs in games like Inazuma Eleven and (soon) Nunokuni.  JRPGs aren't dying in Japan, they're just changing.  Finally.

Indeed.  But don't tell that to the people here.  They only consider certain JRPGs to be 'acceptable'.  Things like Dragon Quest or Pokemon don't seem to count, while Final Fantasy and Monster Hunter do.

People just need to realize, JRPGs have been 'hurting' this gen because they focused some 4 years on the wrong systems.  They spent almost 3 years focuing almost exclusively on the XBOX360 and PSP.  And then they turned around and started putting their games on the DS and PS3.  Its only now that they're focusing on the DS and Wii together.  What they should have been doing in the first place.  Because, what a concept, the Wii is the dominant console in Japan and JRPGs on the HD consoles aren't selling 2 million in America.

That's the main problem. Wii's the middle child in Japan, getting no attention.