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Obviously there are variables that could strongly effect them but I don't think too much in the negative.  I do think if instead of a pricecut this year, we see a bundle of Wii with Wii Sports and Wii Sports Resort + Motionplus, then that could strongly increase sales of the system.  It's rather likely too as Zelda Wii is more than likely goign to be motion plus only and having the userbase as large as possible would be a good thing.  Then of course if this happened, we might see a competitive pricedrop in 2011/2012 to $150 and $100 to make it the "cost friendly" console of choice as the next wave of consoles start to be detailed and come out.  This is something Nintendo will be able to do more effectively due to the profits they make off their software, which the competition doesn't have the luxury of.  Given all that, Wii sales could increase by a good 10-20 million if timed well.  Of course competition could hurt them in certain ways, but as we've seen for the first 3 years of the cycle, nothing to an extent that hurt their market share.