Can't you just state your predictions and leave it at that? The argument isn't going anywhere, just wait a few months and we'll know.

JJ, what's your prediction for sales in Japan and WW?

Gee, I don't know.  They take a break and eat a donut, I guess.  Your point?  Are you suggesting that people who don't want exercise and would prefer to stuff themselves with donuts are not going to get Wii Fit?  Ah, you're probably right.  But I don't think that's the vast majority of Wii users.  See, most Wii Users got the Wii knowing they'd be getting exercise out of it.  Hence, the "Wii Sports" system mover.  Whereas, those who wanted to sit around and get sweaty eating donuts probably picked up one of the other consoles, or none at all.

Let me jump in on this jjseth/JMan debate.

I take my Wii over to my cousin's house. Just took it over there this past Sunday.

My cousin's wife is heavy. Fat. She can get around but she has weight on her.

When I bring the Wii over she gets up and plays. The games that demand getting up like especially Wii Sports she gets up and plays. Sometimes we all sit down and play the Wii on the couch just making the movements (which was an ingenious part from Nintendo in how they designed the conrols knowing how sometimes you're more active than other times). But she generally gets up & moves around having lots of fun when she plays. She gets winded sometimes but that comes naturally when anyone does a physical activity. I've gotten like that playing some Wii Boxing in some strenuous matches.

She does like the screen says and takes a break when she gets tired like I do being skinny when I get tired. But guarantee you she gets right back into it when she has her composure. She's actually probably more active than her children are when playing because she has so much fun. And the children are slimmer and younger. She tends to move the most. Sometimes even more than me with my 145 pound self.

Wii Fit will not be a deterrent for people to participate in. In fact, I think my cousin would have loads of fun playing it. She enjoys the Wii immensely. I hope to get her one for or after Christmas. I do worry about the yoga exercises though. But I'm sure Nintendo has precautions placed inside on how to play it. If I find that my cousin's wife is doing yoga exercises being her size, I'm gonna come back here and officially tell you that Wii Fit is a bonafide hit and has no boundaries on its potential for sales.

John Lucas 

 What disinterested/neutral third party do you suggest to hold the money and adjudicate the bet?

All reports are that it sold out first day, Nintendo said themself they are gonna space out the shipments.  You can't tell if it is a hit or miss if the game sells out. 

I don't think monster hunter 3 will outsell Monster hunter on PSP. I don't think it would outsell it if it was on PS3 either, the only system that probably would have sold more would be the DS, and even then I think it would be close.

The Japanese are big into health and exercise, but they don't have much personal space.

Wii Fit aims to make people do exercises in a very confined space.

There's really no other information necessary. Nintendogs was a massive hit in Japan because space for pets is at a premium and most don't have the room for a dog. Wii Fit is in the exact same boat.

The US is a wild card because it'll involve getting fat people to admit that they're fat. I mean, who the hell buys that kind of gift for a loved one?

Wow, for the most part I actually agree with Jjseth. Yes, this item will probably sell well. I'm sure it will be featured on Oprah and I'm sure she'll probably give out a Wii and Wii Fit to everyone in the audience. She'll yell out her Oprah howl which will signal women across America to go out and buy it that day/week. It'll probably be the next big fitness craze, like roller blading was in the 90s.

But I can't see this product having any lasting effect on the game industry. It'll probably end up being pushed under the bed or stored in the closest just months after being bought. People won't see the results they expected and just forget about it. I can't see how this product is going to help anyone loose wait on its own and I doubt very much that a video game peripheral will inspire them to get the proper exercise they need to loose that weight.

I did the same and likened the product to the Power Pad. Everyone I knew owned one as a child, but no one really used it. Heck most of the kids used their hands to "run". The Wii Fit will sell well and will be considered a huge success, but it won't deliver. Just like every other fitness product that has an infomercial.

the board can't only be used for wii fit

there will be good games based on using the board...u can do inputs with ur legs/body via the board along with using wiimote/nunchuck

so u can move with nunchuck, aim with wiimote and lean/balance/control ur vehicle with the balance board

Yeah, I love how people make the exact same predictions about the Wiiboard being a gimmicky fad just like the Wii was and just like the DS was before it.

come on folks, it's been a year already. Nintendo is backing this. It's gonna be supported and as long as its supported, developers are going to start designing for it.