So if you know it has nothing to do with dev time, why mention it at all?

Terrible example, and seems like an excuse to bash Sony.

Edit: There you go. Didn't want it to come down to this, but you brought it on yourself. :-/

Everything this guy predicts is fail. So Alan wake is going to flop!

Poor Alan Wake. ; ;

There are a few issues with the Uncharted 2 comparison though, not the least of which is the lack of an installed fan base.  On top of that, there is the fact that Uncharted 2 wasn't one of the games Sony was touting at the time of it's release, it was THE game that sidelined all other games as it's release approached. 

Alan Wake wont do that, there are at least three or four exclusives releasing in 2010 for the Xbox 360 that surpass it's stature (Halo: Reach, Fable 3, Mass Effect 2 and perhaps Crackdown 2).

I do agree that it is capable of doing three based on the look dont touch knowledge we have so far, I am a little less optomistic though.

As for profitability, we're both stabbing in the dark, but I will point out that Remedy is a VERY small developer.  The entire company is comprised of around thirty people last we heard.

Assuming they all worked for five straight years on Alan Wake at an average $50k a year each (both of those would be EXTREMELY exaggerated assumptions I feel) that is only $7.5 million on Alan Wake development.  Obviously, this ignores a large number of other costs that could easily double that figure.  But either way, you are looking at what will probably be an extraordinarily cheap AAA HD title.

Yeah, but Mass Effect came out in January and Fable/Halo aren't out until the holiday season, so it's really just Crackdown that's in somewhat of a close proximity and that's coming out afterwards anyway. But I take your point that Uncharted was billed by Sony as THE game for winter '09/the year.

As for the budget, you're dead right about the stabbing in the dark so I could be far off the mark. That said, the average salary is supposedly double the figure you give (so $100k p/a instead) and iirc they had various changes of direction with the project, e.g. scrapping the entire first 6 months of development after changing their minds about an open world strategy, so some monies have definitely been wasted. I agree though - I think it will be a very cheap AAA.

I'm not going to tell you you're wrong because I honestly don't know for sure, but last I heard programmer salaries in the USA were in the $40-50k range.  I figured they would be a little higher for Europe, but they couldn't be much higher or there just wouldn't be a competitive market.

The six months as well would be wasted money, but again, would just be part of that five years of development time (am I exaggerating that?  I swear people are spewing five years around left, right and center but you never know what to believe).

But of course a lot of it comes down to just how good the game is.  Uncharted 2 and Mass Effect 2 were both pushed massively by their respective console backers, but both cames came through BIGTIME!  As a result, U2 has just passed three million (and may well hit four if it gets some bundling) and Mass Effect 2 has a chance to hit three as well.  If Alan Wake came out and got 85 on Metacritic rather than 91 or so, that would automatically translate into substantially lower sales (say what you want about whether that is a fair response to what would still be a very good game, but the fact remains for big budget, big marketing titles reviews affect sales).

The ESA reported the average developer salary in America was $92,300 in 2007, and I've seen a more recent report (post-recession, even) that indicated it is still at that level. Certainly a quick google search suggests that the average starting salary is anywhere between $70 and $120k.

And yes that 6 month waste would have been in the 5 year span, no doubt. I can't remember how far development actually stretches back, but I think I've read an interview somewhere in which they said they were originally aiming for a ps2 release and had been thinking about Alan Wake ever since Max Payne met with success.

Lastly, I think Uncharted 2 will do 4 million even without bundling! I agree about Alan Wake's critical reception, too; huge acclaim would definitely secure great sales, whilst I think a Meta of Final Fantasy 13 or so would prevent it from setting the charts alight.

Wow, looks like I was well and truly wrong about the developer salaries then.

But as you said, even doubling those salaries, we're still looking at a very cheap game, assuming it is as awesome as Remedy and MGS say it is.

It's not as big a risk in style or gameplay as HR was. Even if 10 m. 360 owners are avid online shooter-only people that would still leave 30m plus as a fanbase. This title has been eagerly awaited for most of the 5 yrs. and M$ seem to be trying to force pc users to buy a box. I expect better nos. than HR up front but less leg, moderate promos at release and for the holidays. 2m LT will be easy if it AAAs, maybe 2.5. Gameplay not gunplay seems like a popular theme these days.