wholikeswood said:
starcraft said:
wholikeswood said:
starcraft said:
One million is probably enough for the game to be profitable, but I think we all know that would be disappointing given the game's stature in the Xbox 360's line-up.
Two million would be a fantastic result, but honestly, I am hoping for three. |
Considering how long this game has been in development for, I'd say that around the 1mil area would be the break-even mark.
I wouldn't low-ball this game, either. I think 2mil would be good, but considering how incredible the game looks and how Microsoft have promised to market it like a full-on movie blockbuster, I think it's definitely capable of 3mil and that would be a fantastic result.
I actually have a hunch it will sell like Uncharted 2. Obviously it's at a disadvantage since there's no immediate holiday season to boost it, but I think hardcore gamers are really embracing this generation's outstanding new action/adventure IPs, and so I think it will break 2.5mil a year from release.
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There are a few issues with the Uncharted 2 comparison though, not the least of which is the lack of an installed fan base. On top of that, there is the fact that Uncharted 2 wasn't one of the games Sony was touting at the time of it's release, it was THE game that sidelined all other games as it's release approached.
Alan Wake wont do that, there are at least three or four exclusives releasing in 2010 for the Xbox 360 that surpass it's stature (Halo: Reach, Fable 3, Mass Effect 2 and perhaps Crackdown 2).
I do agree that it is capable of doing three based on the look dont touch knowledge we have so far, I am a little less optomistic though.
As for profitability, we're both stabbing in the dark, but I will point out that Remedy is a VERY small developer. The entire company is comprised of around thirty people last we heard.
Assuming they all worked for five straight years on Alan Wake at an average $50k a year each (both of those would be EXTREMELY exaggerated assumptions I feel) that is only $7.5 million on Alan Wake development. Obviously, this ignores a large number of other costs that could easily double that figure. But either way, you are looking at what will probably be an extraordinarily cheap AAA HD title.
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Yeah, but Mass Effect came out in January and Fable/Halo aren't out until the holiday season, so it's really just Crackdown that's in somewhat of a close proximity and that's coming out afterwards anyway. But I take your point that Uncharted was billed by Sony as THE game for winter '09/the year.
As for the budget, you're dead right about the stabbing in the dark so I could be far off the mark. That said, the average salary is supposedly double the figure you give (so $100k p/a instead) and iirc they had various changes of direction with the project, e.g. scrapping the entire first 6 months of development after changing their minds about an open world strategy, so some monies have definitely been wasted. I agree though - I think it will be a very cheap AAA.
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I'm not going to tell you you're wrong because I honestly don't know for sure, but last I heard programmer salaries in the USA were in the $40-50k range. I figured they would be a little higher for Europe, but they couldn't be much higher or there just wouldn't be a competitive market.
The six months as well would be wasted money, but again, would just be part of that five years of development time (am I exaggerating that? I swear people are spewing five years around left, right and center but you never know what to believe).
But of course a lot of it comes down to just how good the game is. Uncharted 2 and Mass Effect 2 were both pushed massively by their respective console backers, but both cames came through BIGTIME! As a result, U2 has just passed three million (and may well hit four if it gets some bundling) and Mass Effect 2 has a chance to hit three as well. If Alan Wake came out and got 85 on Metacritic rather than 91 or so, that would automatically translate into substantially lower sales (say what you want about whether that is a fair response to what would still be a very good game, but the fact remains for big budget, big marketing titles reviews affect sales).
