hmm what a bold prediction... i myself think heavy rain has a chance of reaching 2 mil
so alan wake might reach 2 mil too.

i hope im wrong,but i cant see it selling more than 2 millions at best.(based just on preorders,and how not pure shooters sells on 360 like ME and some other games)

1.5 - 2 million would seem a reasonable stab. The game is classified 15 for the UK at least which will help with this games sales.

BBFC snippet.

"The sound effects are evocative, adding significantly to the feeling of threat, with discordant music, unexplained noises in the dark woods, disembodied sounds of babies crying and the sound of Alice calling from afar, or sometimes screaming for help. The constantly unsettling tonal aspect to the game - rather than the actual violence itself (which is almost always just implied, with no sight of injuries or blood)"

I know of two games that beat it, not because of dev time but because their highly anticipated games helped to put their studios under.  Free Radical Design (RIP) which went along with the idiotic idea of making their FPS game PS3 exclusive.  The other is Factor 5 which probably regrets ever getting in bed with Sony and their last hairbrained response to the Wii Remote, the Sixaxis.

3-4 million I think is really needed, 2 million will be a breeze I think.

im expecting this game to sell around 3 million copies
it wont have a massive launch but im predicting good legs

If the campaign is long, will it cost more?

The problem is, it has worse legs than Mass Effect, which sold around 2m. Even if Mass Effect 2 managed to sell 3m or more in future, we still have to remember that it is a title that was extremely hyped and it is not a new IP. Alan Wake, on the other hand, is a new IP and the amount of hype does not match to that of Mass Effect 2 back then.

Considering how long this game has been in development for, I'd say that around the 1mil area would be the break-even mark.

I wouldn't low-ball this game, either. I think 2mil would be good, but considering how incredible the game looks and how Microsoft have promised to market it like a full-on movie blockbuster, I think it's definitely capable of 3mil and that would be a fantastic result.

I actually have a hunch it will sell like Uncharted 2. Obviously it's at a disadvantage since there's no immediate holiday season to boost it, but I think hardcore gamers are really embracing this generation's outstanding new action/adventure IPs, and so I think it will break 2.5mil a year from release.

i believe alan wake will sell 2 million + lifetime , maybe more.