Very original topic. How come no one have asked that before.

Anyway. It's hard to say. I predicted something between 50-150 million WW. It depends a lot from how much will it sell to people outside traditional gaming public and how the chinese are going to adopt it. If both of the groups are going to adopt it, even John Lucas have predicted the low end of sales.
Nintendo definately made their strategy with Wii, hardware, and downloadable software, sales in mind for the traditional non-gamer, but what have happened, is that now it's the gamers, who have adopted the Wii.

 And in my opinion that is normal.

@bdbdbd sarcastic?  There were more threads like this.

NO, cause the PS2 had 80% of the market share, the Wii gets about 45-50% on a weekly basis.

Not a chance especially when the ps3 and 360 hit mass market pricing. And the wii is already experiencing slowdown in one major market, that being Japan of course. Not saying that it won't do well overall but I just doubt it can sustain these sales long term especially with increasing competition.

First year sales of the Wii are 15M. The PS2 average 17M to 18M a year in sales. Even if I upped the sales to 25M a year for the Wii, it would take 12 to 20 years to reach your prediction of 300M to 500M units sold. I don't think the Wii will have a lifespan that great.

At this stage I cant see the Wii beating the PS2, partly because the PS2 is still very much alive and well and partly because the Wii doesnt yet cater for all types of gamer like the PS2 did. The Wii needs MUCH more hardcore type of stuff to get Americans away from their 360s and at the moment that isnt happening. As it is, I can see the Wii possibly beating the PS1s sales though, which was something like 100m IIRC. People forget that the PS2 isnt anywhere near done yet. The PS3 and the 360 both did 225k each WW last week, the PS2 did 175k. Once the PS2 is dead in about 5 years only then can we see what number the Wii has to aim for. It could end up over 150m easily.

The numbers at the end will probably be 40% wii 30% xbox 360 30% ps3. It will be a 3 horse race. The wii cant get the hard cores that absolutely love metal gear solid, GTA 4, halo 3, and final fantasy xiii and those that love next gen graphics. The PS2 had everything pretty much.

Given the new markets (especially China and to a lesser extent Korea) -- it is very possible.

I would say that 100M is a more realistic amount though because there are other options in those markets (namely the PC) and two other intrenched console competitors.

More on the second point. There are more stable players than there were for much of the PS2's early life. The PS2 came into a market with the DC and the N64. It saw Sega depart, Microsoft enter with the Xbox, and Nintendo produce the GC. That instability led people to go with the established market leader at the time -- Sony.

Mike from Morgantown

Yeah, but there is a bigger market now....I mean more people are buying video games now than last generation....and with Wii Fit, SSBB, Mario Kart Wii, there will be at least 5-7million more sold after the holidays....

I'm pretty sure Nintendo is stock-piling Wii's for the holidays....I HOPE

maybe, lets see