I wouldn't be surprised that as some of the evergreen Nintendo titles slow down the overall sales of the Wii slow down as well. However since the Wii is probably the most unpredictable I'll refrain from making an ass of myself by not predicting whether it'll be up or down.

i've been saying this for a long time, don't simply look at YoY and compare without context. Sales in Q1 2009 were artificially high because of massive demand left over from Q4 2008, the wii was not heavily supply constrained in Q4 2009 and sold 4 million in the US in december, meaning they satisfied december demand for the first time ever. That is why now it is starting to outsell it YoY, because the left over demand from december diminished to where it was mostly just regular demand.

While there are some factors (mostly game releases) which will predictably increase sales around there release (to some extent), the vast majority of mid-year console sales are driven by the unpredictable motivations of individuals; and while a fairly large (over 5%) sales increase or decrease in a timeframe of a quarter or longer may be meaningful, on a shorter term basis it is just random noise.

I wonder how Wii will jump in sales when Galaxy 2 will be out...