Actually, they're pretty close to what HDTVs were shortly after they hit the market. I paid $1800 for a 38" HDTV in early 2002. It retailed at $2500 or so.

And remember that popularity in a theatre /=/ popularity in the home. Theatre-watching is a spectacle. People who have purchased an HDTV in the past five years aren't going to leap at the idea of spending another $2k on a 3D-enabled device. Those who haven't purchased an HDTV yet SURE AS HELL won't spend the extra money for 3D. Also remember that many people are satisfied with a 27" television with built-in speakers. Do you really think they'll ever give a shit about 3D?

If there comes a point where a 3D television is the same price as a non-3D television, then it might take off... after five years on the market as replacement televisions are purchased and it slowly gains traction in the home. Until then, it will be a niche product for a few people and nothing more.

I know couple of people who had a headache watching Avatar and several people to whom 3D made no impression. I couldn't see much difference between 3D and 2D. I barely noticed 3D in the film and it didn't make much difference to me. Those few moments when I noticed 3D it felt very unnatural, more like a CGI movie. Wasn't worth the extra money IMO. But probably I just couldn't see 3D as it is meant to be (it's not uncommon)... I did like Avatar though, only 3D didn't make impression to me.

Also, according to some studies, there could be more people who can't see 3D properly than those who can. Sure, most can see some kind of 3D but not even nearly everyone sees 3D as it is meant to be. So, that is also going to hurt 3D TV sales a lot.

If you don't believe me then read this: "56 percent of people aged 18 to 38 have problems that could make it difficult to view 3-D properly. Another 5 percent of the population have problems that make it impossible to view in 3-D."

Source (I wanted to find original research but couldn't find it): http://hothardware.com/News/See-Avatar-Diagnose-Your-Vision-Problems/

I keep hearing people say that a lot of people just switched to HDTVs, so obviously they won't go out and spend a fortune on new TVs now, but it's also my understanding that the majority of HD console owners play on SDTVs, and that there are still a lot of people with SDTVs out there. What's to stop them from seeing 3D as the final push for getting a flatscreen TV?

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying that you seem to be blowing this waaay out of proportion, since all I have heard is that 3DTV growth is going up strong, and I really haven't seen anything to support the notion that current HDTV owners will be a problem. I could be wrong, maybe I just haven't seen the right numbers, but you get my point.

I just bought a new TV. I'm not buying another one anytime soon.

If someone didn't buy a HDTV to enjoy their console, will they be the kind of people who are early adopters of 3DTVs?

If they haven't spent $500 on an HDTV by now, what makes you think they'll spend even 10% more for a 3D-enabled television? These are the late adopters we're talking about... price is 99% of their decision.

I'd like to chime in as a late adopter still playing on a 32" CRT that weighs about eight million pounds.

When I said autostereoscopic 3D would need to be affordable, I wasn't kidding.

+1

3D TVs are expensive, really good 3D TVs are really really expensive. You need a pretty large set for a good 3D experience because as soon as the image goes off the side of the TV you lose the 3D effect. People will probably need the 46"+ size TVs to really take advantage of the technology and until the price comes down and the content/ancillary glasses improve the general population will be non partakers.

Actually, the 3d vision movies and tv give are the exact same depth perception that your eyes get from the environment. focus your pupil on something in the distance but pay attention to things that are closer to you. Things in the foreground always have the same vibrating jitteriness that people complain about when they see 3d movies. It's just that in real life, you don't pay attention to it, or rather, when you are watching a 3d movie, you are more critical of the actual display.

A lot of people expect 3d to be perfect and look just like a regular movie but with depth, but what they don't understand is that not even normal vision is capable of showing depth in that ideal way.