Rickz0r said:
fighter said:
Rickz0r said:
fighter said:
i'll take you up on the bet
oh, and btw, no analysis could predict the result except the will of companies to invest 
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I'm currently working in a marketing company. And we have good relations with alot of gaming company's (That includes Microsoft & Sony). We research what's the best way to advertise a product for a certain focus group. Microsoft asked us before to make a survey for about 15000 people (Aged 12 (Most parents helped children under 18) - 60 ), about controller-less gaming and if it would (re-)ignite their gaming - flame. The survey wasn't so possitive at all, with alot of 40+ people saying that the Wii fullfilled their gaming needs / they didn't feel like gaming anyway. I don't think natal will be a great succes at all. I'm not saying the Move is any different, but it's more like the Wii then Natal, and seems to focus a bit more on Hardcore games / Unique experiences (Heavy Rain) .
That's why I think that when both Natal and Move are launched, the Ps3 will keep on selling better then the 360. And since no analysis is conclusive, your statement is as bold as they come.
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I'm currently working in a marketing company too. I'm specialized in network effects and format wars. When i'm telling you there is no way to predict the outcome it's simply because there is no way to predict it.
If you don't agree with me ask Eisenmann at the Harvard Business School.
Simply put, the value of a network evolves constantly and the most pertinent factor of it's outcome against competition is investment. Even that parameter cannot be relied on. In the end it's merely a KPI among others. The second one would be differentiation, but as you can see this gen Wii gave the impression differenciation would be more important than investment.
My statement as you can see is not bold but prudent.
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Check the bolded, what I said was true. Not a single analysis is conclusive and yet you made another bold statement. (Underlined)
You can predict anything, it's just that the accuracy of your prediction can be very low.
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You're right about the term "prediction", it doesn't require a methodology whatsoever to be.
Anyway, i like bets like these. What's at stake ? How about "occupying" loser's sig for a month ?
