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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 15A - Game Thread - Vanilla Round

 

Me OK..lets clear some shit up.
After Vetteman voted no lynch, I quoted him and said "OK then, : No Lynch". In his post he mentioned "us townies", suggesting that he is a townie...Since I'm new to mafia, I quickly edited my post thinking that he is falsely interpreting himself as a townie to make another townie slip up.
Afterwards I realized that if he WAS mafia, he would know who is a townie and who is not. So it was all a newb disaster by me.
Then I checked what everyone voted on day 1

OK..lets clear some shit up. I changed my vote above from theRepublic to dtewi (is that allowed ? please give me one more chance since I'm a first timer )

After Vetteman94 voted no lynch, I quoted him and said "OK then, : No Lynch". In his post he mentioned "us townies", suggesting that he is a townie...Since I'm new to mafia, I quickly edited my post thinking that he is falsely interpreting himself as a townie to make another townie slip up.

Afterwards I realized that if he WAS mafia, he would know who is a townie and who is not. So it was all a newb disaster by me.

Then I checked what everyone voted on day 1

No lynch voters

  • ArkZero
  • dtewi
  • KingFate
  • SciFiBoy
  • Vetteman94
I think its safe to assume that these guys (or majority of them anyway) are probably townies.
People who didn't vote
  • Me (because I wasn't online)
  • insomniac17
  • Nikells
  • theRepublic
So, I know I'm not mafia, and Nikells isn't either.
That leaves 7 people with the possibility of being mafia. Out of those 7, insomniac17 and theRepublic didn't vote.
I'm convinced that Vetteman94 isn't mafia judging by his first game related post. If he is, then he is EVIL. But its most likely he isn't because there is no way someone who is mafia would pretend that he is a townie like THAT. Which leads me to suspect dtewi (I will get to this later in the post).
People who were interested in my edit who suspect me of being mafia are obviously townies, if they are mafia, they would know I'm one of them. So that eradicates the possibility of SciFiBoy, KingFate and probably even theRepublic (sorry dude, I wanted to spice things up) being mafia.
Mafia suspects 
ArkZero -
He only voted no lynch because he feels the chance of a lynch happening is unlikely. (Mafia probability - 65%)
dtewi -
calling out for a cop, as a frequent player of the game he was not bothered about my edit...Voting No lynch for the sake of reverse psychology me thinks...
"Oh my god, it took half a page for Night 1 to start." - Doesn't this mean he was anxiously waiting for night 1 to arrive so he can kill Nikells who had made some brilliant observations ?
(Mafia probability - 80%)
insomniac17 -
Also not bothered by my edit, didn't vote. (Mafia probability - 55%)
theRepublic -
Didn't vote, didn't give away much at all in his posts. (Mafia probability - 55%)
Now lynch dtewi before the mafia kill me too !

 



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GoW_3ever

Stop editing your posts!!!!   This is how you change your vote

unvote:   name of player

vote:   name of player

 

I think you should go back and change your posts back to the way they were and if you want to change who you vote for, follow the above instructions.

Alsom you still havent ansered what was in the original post you edited.

 



I answered what was in my original post and why I edited it...



zexen_lowe said:
Bold your votes, please

Next game, or even this game, we should probably make more of the rules explicit.  Stuff like bold your vote and don't edit should be in the OP next time for the new players.



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GodOfWar_3ever said:

People who were interested in my edit who suspect me of being mafia are obviously townies, if they are mafia, they would know I'm one of them. So that eradicates the possibility of SciFiBoy, KingFate and probably even theRepublic (sorry dude, I wanted to spice things up) being mafia.
Mafia suspects 
ArkZero -
He only voted no lynch because he feels the chance of a lynch happening is unlikely. (Mafia probability - 65%)
dtewi -
calling out for a cop, as a frequent player of the game he was not bothered about my edit...Voting No lynch for the sake of reverse psychology me thinks...
"Oh my god, it took half a page for Night 1 to start." - Doesn't this mean he was anxiously waiting for night 1 to arrive so he can kill Nikells who had made some brilliant observations ?
(Mafia probability - 80%)
insomniac17 -
Also not bothered by my edit, didn't vote. (Mafia probability - 55%)
theRepublic -
Didn't vote, didn't give away much at all in his posts. (Mafia probability - 55%)
Now lynch dtewi before the mafia kill me too !

While I know this is odd, you can go back and look at previous games that I've been in. I may have voted No Lynch once or twice, but more often than not, I didn't.

Your edit didn't bother me simply because you're a new player. New players may or may not know all of the rules, and I tend to give them a bit more leniency.

I don't quite agree with the logic that people who found your edit interesting aren't mafia. They may have wanted to bring attention to your mistake, and make you come across as mafia.

My personal suspect right now is ArkZero, because he hasn't posted much at all.



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GodOfWar_3ever said:
Me OK..lets clear some shit up.
After Vetteman voted no lynch, I quoted him and said "OK then, : No Lynch". In his post he mentioned "us townies", suggesting that he is a townie...Since I'm new to mafia, I quickly edited my post thinking that he is falsely interpreting himself as a townie to make another townie slip up.
Afterwards I realized that if he WAS mafia, he would know who is a townie and who is not. So it was all a newb disaster by me.
Then I checked what everyone voted on day 1

After Vetteman94 voted no lynch, I quoted him and said "OK then, : No Lynch". In his post he mentioned "us townies", suggesting that he is a townie...Since I'm new to mafia, I quickly edited my post thinking that he is falsely interpreting himself as a townie to make another townie slip up.

Afterwards I realized that if he WAS mafia, he would know who is a townie and who is not. So it was all a newb disaster by me.

Newb disaster, or mafia disaster?  You seem very concerned with how your posts sound.  Is that because you are a calculating mafia member?

GodOfWar_3ever said:

I'm convinced that Vetteman94 isn't mafia judging by his first game related post. If he is, then he is EVIL. But its most likely he isn't because there is no way someone who is mafia would pretend that he is a townie like THAT.

Why wouldn't mafia pretend like that?  I'm not saying that Vetteman is mafia, but that post of his does nothing to convince me he isn't mafia.  You seem awfully sure he is a townie, when a real townie would have very few clues at this point in the game.
GodOfWar_3ever said:

theRepublic -
Didn't vote, didn't give away much at all in his posts. (Mafia probability - 55%)

You are worried that I am mafia because I did something that you did?  That seems strange.  Like you, I was not online when the day was coming to a close.  'No Lynch' only had one vote last time I was on, then the day had ended by the time I got back.  As for my posts, I said that no lynch was a good idea, but I wanted the day to go longer so I could see some more posts.  Which brings me back to this:
GodOfWar_3ever said:

What a beautiful day !

This edit does not sit well with me.  Your explanation doesn't sit well with me either.

FoS: GodOfWar

(This means Finger of Suspicion.  It is shorthand for people to show who they are suspicious of.)

I just thought of one last thing.  There are 8 people today.  Since no one is going to suspect themselves, that leaves 7 suspects.  Out of 7 possible, you list 4 as your suspects.  That is over 50 percent!  That doesn't seem very helpful.  You are just slinging mud around, hoping something sticks.

 



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

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Alright I am going to throw an interesting idea out there, interesting to me anyway, and I want some of your opinions on this "possible" plan. Now this is only an idea, but it could really improve our chances of finding a mafia.

I say we do a "no lynch vote today as well. Soak up as much information from posts as possible from today though. But this is how it would play out. We vote no lynch and the day ends with 8 alive. We wake up and the mafia will claim another. Leaving us with 7 people.

Then the cop comes forward and spills his guts on what he has found the first 2 days. Now that will put 3 people in the clear, unless one of his investigations nets a mafia, one being a cop, two being townies. Leaving us with 4 people left that are unconfirmed, and a possible 50/50 chance at hitting a mafia with the next day lynch, if there are only 2.

Now there can be a couple downfalls to this plan. For starters, the cop could get killed tonight which would put us in a small but not horrible situation. Another downfall would be one of the people the cop investigated gets killed, that would eliminate one of the confirmed people, but still put us in a decent spot that third day to lynch a mafia.

What do you think, its not perfect by any means, but I think it gives us a good chance of ending this by the end of day 4 with us townies winning.


I still suspect both GoW_3ever and dtewi, and wouldnt mind a lynch of one of those today, but I think this is a good alternative.



That is certainly an interesting idea. However, I think there are too many unknowns in your plan for me to be comfortable with it.

I am leaning toward there being only two mafia, but in the off chance that there are three mafia, your plan would require a mafia lynch every single day. One mis-lynch would end the game with a loss. If there are two mafia, it would take two mis-lynches.

We also don't know if the cop's first investigation is still alive. If Nikells was investigated Night One, your plan is in trouble right out of the gate.

Let's say we go through with your plan. With two mafia, there is a 17% chance the cop is killed tonight. With three mafia, there is a 20% chance the cop is killed tonight. Assuming the cop's investigation from last night is still alive, with two mafia, there is a 33% chance one of the people investigated gets killed. With three mafia, a 40% chance. So the chance of your plan getting messed up if there are two mafia is 50%. With three mafia, a 60% chance. I don't like those odds.

You state that the cop getting killed tonight would not be a horrible situation. I disagree. With two mafia, we would only get two chances to lynch before the game would end. Without any investigations, that would be tough. A 29% chance of getting mafia on the first lynch, and a 40% chance on the second. With three mafia, one mis-lynch and the game is over. The odds of getting a mafia on that one chance would be 43%.

The investigated people being killed is less troublesome. One killed would leave five unknows. So a 40% or 60% chance of getting mafia depending on how many there are. Still my biggest concern with this part of the plan is the cop's first investigation. If it was Nikells, then I think your plan is a non-starter. But I DO NOT want the cop to step forward to tell us if it was or not.



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
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Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
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PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)

I want dtewi to post more, this is neither a vote nor FoS, it is a request, however failure to meet it, would force me to conclude that you have something to hide...



 



Vetteman94 said:

I still suspect both GoW_3ever and dtewi, and wouldnt mind a lynch of one of those today, but I think this is a good alternative.

Why do you suspect Dtewi?



Switch Code: SW-7377-9189-3397 -- Nintendo Network ID: theRepublic -- Steam ID: theRepublic

Now Playing
Switch - Super Mario Maker 2 (2019)
Switch - The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (2019)
Switch - Bastion (2011/2018)
3DS - Star Fox 64 3D (2011)
3DS - Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney (Trilogy) (2005/2014)
Wii U - Darksiders: Warmastered Edition (2010/2017)
Mobile - The Simpson's Tapped Out and Yugioh Duel Links
PC - Deep Rock Galactic (2020)