Mafia Round 15A - Game Thread

theRepublic

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theRepublic on 29 March 2010

Vetteman94 said:
Sorry, there are way too many variables and holes in your numbers. Like how can there ever be a 67% chance we lynch scum today with a cop roleclaim? There isnt. I dont know where you are getting those numbers but they are wrong. I am starting to think you are doing it to confuse the rest of the people and trying to lead them into a situation you want.

FoS: theRepublic

More lazy logic out of you. I think you are doing this on purpose. Again FoS Vetteman.

If the cop has two investigations alive, he knows about three people including himself. That leaves three unknowns. Two of those are mafia.

2/3 = 67%

You mention I left variables out in one of your other posts. What did I leave out specifically? I'm pretty damn sure I covered every possible scenario for the two ways we could go about lynching someone today. I even showed most of my work. So what exactly did I leave out, or is this more of your bad logic? I have seen far too much of that this game from you.

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theRepublic

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theRepublic on 29 March 2010

Vetteman94 said:

vote: no lynch

It gives the town an extra day plus without any information to go on(investigation results), it makes it tough to trust anyone. I still think the cop should come forward if both of his investigations are alive. But only for that reason.

I disagree. If the cop comes forward today, we have to lynch. With two alive investigations, that would give the town a 33% chance to win the game. If we go ahead and try to lynch today without the cop roleclaiming, that improves our odds of winning the game up to 44%. We don't know how many investigations the cop has alive right now, but for every case (2, 1, or 0 alive), it is better for the town to lynch without the cop roleclaiming.

Now I need to figure out what the chances of the town are with a no lynch.

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theRepublic

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theRepublic on 29 March 2010

One quick thing I will point out is the cop has a 25% chance of dying whether we lynch mafia today or no lynch today. That stays the same.

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Vetteman94

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Vetteman94 on 29 March 2010

theRepublic said:

Vetteman94 said:

vote: no lynch

It gives the town an extra day plus without any information to go on(investigation results), it makes it tough to trust anyone. I still think the cop should come forward if both of his investigations are alive. But only for that reason.

I disagree. If the cop comes forward today, we have to lynch. With two alive investigations, that would give the town a 33% chance to win the game. If we go ahead and try to lynch today without the cop roleclaiming, that improves our odds of winning the game up to 44%. We don't know how many investigations the cop has alive right now, but for every case (2, 1, or 0 alive), it is better for the town to lynch without the cop roleclaiming.

Now I need to figure out what the chances of the town are with a no lynch.

What are you disagreeing with? I never said that we should no lynch even if the cop comes forward. I was saying with our current information without him coming forward, I believe a no lynch is best for the town.