Mafia Round 15A - Game Thread - Vanilla Round

[theRepublic]

Vetteman94 said:

vote: no lynch

It gives the town an extra day plus without any information to go on(investigation results), it makes it tough to trust anyone.  I still think the cop should come forward if both of his investigations are alive.  But only for that reason. 

I disagree.  If the cop comes forward today, we have to lynch.  With two alive investigations, that would give the town a 33% chance to win the game.  If we go ahead and try to lynch today without the cop roleclaiming, that improves our odds of winning the game up to 44%.  We don't know how many investigations the cop has alive right now, but for every case (2, 1, or 0 alive), it is better for the town to lynch without the cop roleclaiming.

Now I need to figure out what the chances of the town are with a no lynch.