NJ5.
I dont think sales increase like that. The people who know what they are doing, like hardcore gamers, are picking up Xbox360's. For games etc.
Parents, and Sony fans who ever unable to purchase a PS3 last year will be returning this holiday season to buy a PS3. The US may not be up for grabs, but I HIGHLY doubt that they will increase proportionally.
Europe has not seen a PS3 Christmas yet, so it will either bust here, or explode this holiday season. Depends on whether or not people finally accept the PS3 as the current console.
Japan might drop like you said, I can see that happening. Wii fit will propel the Wii past the PS3 again, however I do expect to see the PS3 sales skyrocket as well, since the reality is the Wii and PS3 aren't actually in competition. High Wii sales doesnt immediately mean low PS3 sales.
The PS3 has three things working for it right now.
1. Games (dont forget Singstar will be released in Europe next month.) Also the "no games stuff is completely untrue, since the PS3 has the widest selection in terms of touching different fan bases right now. Also, it has as many 85 and up games as the 360 had last year.
2. All the people that wanted to buy a PS3 probably wouldnt do so in the middle of the year. Its was really expensive, and didnt have many games.
3. Pricing. Its no long "the PS3 is good, but the 360 has the same games and is $200 less. It is $100 less, however, the 40gb is more comparable to the 20gb Xbox, in which case the price difference is $50.
In the end there are too many variables to assume this holiday season is so cut and dry. Next weeks sales, which will include black Friday, will give everyone a better idea of what the outcome will be.
Personally, I think the Xbox will hit its limit around 400,000 per week. The PS3 will hit 500,000-600,000 WW.
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