"The signs are that the Wii has peaked in terms of console sales, and its installed base will begin to decline after 2011."

Couldn't agree more. I always thought the wii would go like this:

2010: 76m
2011: 84m (horrible year)
2012: 82m (starts to decline slowly)
2013: 62m (declines quite fast)

Who opened the petrol can in the office? oh and Wii will top 112 million in 2013, before PS3 tops 80 Million I'm sure.

And PS3 will outsell DS by 2014 and outsell food by 2018...no, 2017!

absoultly not

isn't it obvious? PS3 does everything, even selling 3x more than is produced.

And by 2020 there'll be more PS3s on Earth than humans and Sony buys the entire solar system and starts a mass production of flying paper-mache submarines to destroy the last remnants of Nintendo and Microsoft who are hiding somewhere along the asteroid belt...

No freaking way...

My predictions by the end of 2013:

PS3 - 80 million
Wii - 135 million

I could actually see that prediction being quite accurate, kilik...

why yes, ps3 has the potential to do so,

NO!
and not because I support Wii over PS3, but because of this article:

"Here's Divnich's "worst-case scenario": "For the Wii, let us assume a 25% decline in sales next year," he postulates, "followed by two years of 30% declines, and a 50% decline in 2013. For the Xbox 360, we'll assume a 10% increase through 2012, and a 30% decline in 2013. For the PlayStation 3, a 25% increase next year, followed by two years of 10% increases and a 30% decline in 2013."

Even with those unlikely numbers, Divnich says, the Wii comes out selling about as much as the PS2 has, and claims victory over the Xbox 360 and PS3. The reality will, of course, be much more complicated than the projection. Divnich notes that Nintendo is likely to release some kind of new hardware, either in the form of a bundle or an upgraded system, that will affect sales; "Additionally, we know that Sony plans to support the PS3 through 2016, which means there are three additional years where Sony could gain a tremendous amount of ground on the Wii and Xbox 360 by being able to offer an affordable Blu-ray player to consumers (very similar to the late success the PS2 had by being able to offer consumers an incredibly cheap video game system/DVD player)."

And thats on a worst case scenario, imagine a best case scenario where Wii sales don't decline as much, you might want to point to current Wii sales decline as a sign, but you should wait until the end of 2010 to really start to speculate