really? you really think monster hunter tri and red steel 2 can push hardware like god of war 3, GT5 and MOVE can?

You're forgetting about the juggernaut that is Rage of the Gladiator.

He's always wrong.

well he didn't mention it in his latest post so I thought I'd let him off. clearly your a vindictive bastard :P

Where did I say anything about the latter three? What do they have to do with anything?

because Pachter is talking about games that sell really well  ands invigorate interest in the hardware.  In Pachter's view,  you need to be sell at least a million in USA to count as an exciting exclusive. PS3 has that with GoW3 and GT5 down the line as well as MOVE which will act as catalyst. Wii Vitality will probably be a much more exciting exclusive than MH3 and RS2 combined, but he cant really comment on that since we know nothing about it 

He is an ANALYST not a JOURNALIST

the article seems to be one of those peices that goes 'hey! wii has harcore games too stop ignoring them its not just casual!' Pachter isnt a HD fanboy or some kind of wii troll. he doesnt care how good the game is or how hardcore it is, only its selling potential and  potential to push hardware.

by bringing up  age of the gladiators as a reason for wii sales to increase over the next few months is completely and utterly stupid on the part of the article. It makes the writer completely loose all credibillty. He is in no position to criticise Pachter at all

Pachter seems to have a history of ignoring facts that cause one to wonder about the hypothesis that he puts forth.

If game units are selling for more than retail prices from "after market vendors" (read eBay and Amazon.com sellers (not Amazon.com itself)), then they are usually not available elsewhere.

Let us take the case of Wii Play. Interesting that it has been hard to find since one of its components is a controller, which have been almost non-existent since the first of the year. Similarly, that is an item usually bought by people getting the system. Thus, no hardware, no Wii Play sales.

On the software front, Monster Hunter Tri has a demo disk. That in and of itself says a big push is being made.

He might be right on the hardware. Though my bet would be that Natal and Move are being oversold, so just having the heretofore little known about it Vitality Sensor coming out is not a big loss for Nintendo.

Pachter and the other analysts could be right about the Wii. But while the past does not guarantee the future, the track record of Pachter et al. leads me to bet against them. After all, the Wii has already doubled the LTD sales many of them predicted before the beginning of the generation.

Mike from Morgantown

Eh... this might be true if Pachter didn't just highlight games like Heavy Rain and MLB 10 in the same article before saying Wii wouldn't see any exciting exclusives until Mario Galaxy 2 in May.  Clearly his threshold for "exciting exclusive" is well short of 1m.

A game doesn't have to sell a million in the US to have an impact on hardware or momentum. Momentum is basically real world excitement for a console manifesting itself in sales, big games help to maintain that excitement. And I think you're underestimating Red Steel 2, it'll be bigger than the games jarrod mentioned above.

Tell me, do you think March is gonna be down YoY again or do you think Pachter is wrong? I assume the former, you believe in the Wii HD after all.

well a million was just a number I used as an example, but i do think that only games with good sales push hardware. I have no faith in ubisoft pushing Red Steel 2 well at all, they expect 500k worldwide. If marketed it has the potential  buti dont think it will outsell hevay rain or MLB in the US , and certainly not first month. 

Monster Hunter tri has the potnetial  to be an exciting exclusive but its not a sure thing. If it does sell very well and wii sales rise and im sure Pachter will comment on its surprising success. My main complaint was with the article claiming these game will be big exclusives because he's looking forward to them and they are quailty. hell NMH2 had a metacritic of 90 when it launched and that wasn't an exciting exclusive at all.

In answer to your questions i think overall the industry will be up YoY but wii will be down  YoY