Before I get started, I just want to say that I think what one of the Console manufacturer’s mean when they say they expect their console to have a 10 year life is quite a bit different from what people interpret that to mean. I think it is fair to say that they expect to continue manufacturing the console for 10 or more years, and for some companies to continue to make games for 10 or more years, and it is not a statement that they’re not releasing a new console for a decade. As an example, consider that the PS2 will soon be 10 years old, Sony replaced it after 6 years (in most markets), and there really hasn’t been much of note released on it in 3 years.

Now, I think it is fair to say that we’re not that far from the beginning of the next generation and within the next 2 or 3 years all three console manufacturers will be pushing their next generation hardware. With this in mind, I think that Natal and the Playstation Move have a lot more to do with the upcoming generation than they have with the current one.

The way I see it is Microsoft and Sony are trying to gain credibility with the expanded market and core-gamers who prefer motion controls in the current generation so when they continue to offer them in their next generation system they’re less plagued with the stigma of being a copy-cat. At the same time, there developers lack experience implementing games using these control schemes and they need to develop some important brands in this space or else they will have significant difficulties operating in this space in the next generation. On top of this, I think they want to limit Nintendo’s ability to release a more conventionally powerful console (which could be 8 or more times as powerful as the HD consoles depending on when it is released) and easily re-capturing Wii owners who also wanted more advanced visuals.

The thing I really wonder about is whether Sony and Microsoft have made the same mistake with these input devices that they made when entering into this generation. They focused heavily on the technology their competition was offering and tried to deliver greater technology without considering why people where choosing the products they were buying. In the case of the Wii in particular, a large portion of Nintendo’s success comes from delivering new gameplay experiences as well as being one of the few companies that continues to deliver a quality social gaming experience. While a line-up of games has yet to really materialize, the games that we have seen for Move have mostly been fairly derivative and there hasn’t been much attention paid to making them particularly social. What this means is that these companies may not be building credibility, developing experience and brands to target these customers, or interfering with Nintendo and the Wii’s successor primarily because they don’t understand why the Wii is successful.

I think you're definitely right with regards to Move and Natal being preparations for the next generation, and I also agree that both Microsoft and Sony have failed to show something that makes it seem as though they understand Nintendo's audience. However, earlier today, the US Playstation site put up some new games that support Move, one of which were ModNation Racers. If Sony play that one right, it could be a big success for them (as seen with Mario Kart).

But I'm also convinced that they will both roll out their big games at E3, which is after all the consumer show. So for now, I'm not convinced, but I think it's too early to call.

I think Sony will not need to upgrade the PS4 a huge amount and can keep the price under 400 when it launches. I think they get a faster blu ray drive a gig or so of ram and a good video card use the cell maybe 2 and they can have a bad ass system and keep prices low. i also think microsoft doesnt need to upgrade much either biggest thing with them will be what format to use either blu ray or something else. I think NATAL will have a controller with it either later this GEN or next GEN. Nintendo i think will keep it simple with the wiimote with HD better online. nothing super crazy. i have read their philosophy is games need to be fun and easy to play.

I'll agree with that in terms of Microsoft. Microsoft's pattern for launching a new product often involves its first iteration being a very expensive Beta that they happen to sell to the market at large. They certainly treated Xbox like that (a solid console, don't get me wrong, but you would be hard-pressed to make the case that Microsoft intended Xbox as a serious market product, given that it was never meant to make money)

Natal i think will be the same thing. You've got a late add-on to this console which has taken great pains throughout the years to establish itself as the "extreme" console of choice. Natal is a strong dissonance against the image Microsoft has worked for over 4 years to build, and i think with Natal, there's the problem of getting developers acclimated to it, given how different it is. Natal could be another one that isn't meant to be Microsoft's big product, but just the setup for the NextBox, which will really use what Natal lays down meaningfully

Sony, on the other hand, i'm not entirely sure what they're up to with Move. They could be looking for more immediate gain with that, in that it's just a part of their mission to create the PS3 as the best value console, that Motion Control is just another facet of their "It Only Does Everything" mentality

I agree with you that it is unlikely that either Microsoft or Sony would devote their best teams to developing a game for Natal or Playstation Move; but if they know what they’re doing they should be involving the designers from these top teams in the development of these games. Even being involved at a very high-level "over-sight" kind of position would go a long way towards them understanding and thinking about these projects.

I see what you’re saying, and I fully agree that both Sony and Microsoft (probably) want to sell their products as being able to "do everything" ...

I suppose you could probably say that what I was trying to say is that these products seem to be much more involved in a larger corporate strategy involving these products than people may initially assume; and how well received they’re will have consequences in how the companies approach the next generation.

The next PS X console will still be majority traditional controls games, minority waggle.

I mean how the hell does any one see a natal only Halo game ? or GT motion only. Never gonna happen.

Am I the only one that thinks the ps3 will be discontinued within a year of the ps4 coming out? It made sense for them to do it with the ps2 because they had a huge user base and game library they could collect a massive royalities from. With the ps3 the library is much smaller and alot of the titles have gone multiplatform so the amount of money they make is very little to warrent keeping it going. It would be better for them to get rid of the ps3 as soon as the ps4 comes and focus on marketshare on the new console instead of having the last gen machine cannibalize the new machines sales.

Just because (third-rate) third party developers have gone waggle crazy with the Wii doesn’t mean that a developer couldn’t use motion sensibly in combination with analogue sticks or buttons from the motion controller. With Natal I do agree that it could never be the only controller for a system though.

Its hard to take either particularly seriously.

On the one hand you have the Wiimote clone from Sony which also happens to look quite expensive but so far lacks a single truely compelling experience that Sony could mention at its big unveiling.

On the other hand Natal hasn't really been shown off in any practical sense, however it is interesting in that its a different experience to the original and the clone.

I see both their strategies as such:

Sony are hedging their bets on already developed mindshare and developer expertise. Whilst Microsoft are hedging their bets on creating an interface which would be useful in the absence of any interesting games in that it can be used for a media centre as well. Neither interface is particularly good at this moment in time as a catch all interface for all the different groups whom may want to buy a console or whom may become interested in buying a console.

Microsoft won't have a truely good interface until around 2015 which is where the 5 year comment comes from. They need to leverage 3D adoption and improvements in camera sensors before Natal 2 will be of any real use for anyone. Natal is in essence a holding action, just as Xbox Live on the Xbox 1 was an original concept to build towards an effective implementation of the Live network infrastructure. Natal will probably have reasonable adoption for this generation but its only a first step and the real event will be the next Xbox to truely see the capabilities of the interface.

The Sony wand on the other hand is an attempt to win back marketshare and extend the useful life of the PS3 for this current generation. They'll throw reasonable support behind it but we'll see how serious they are when and if we see them allocate their tier 1 studios to the project. Because its so similar to the Wiimote I can't see them making much headway especially as part of the reason why anyone would have bought the PS3 is that they considered the Wii and then decided against it for various reasons. So essentially Sony need to get their core fans interested in the interface before the next generation because these are already likely people who showed disinterest in the Wii in the first place.