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Forums - Sales - Interesting analysis of holiday numbers using past NPD data

endurance on 17 November 2007

it also happened the same for gc in 2004 and 2005 but not in 2003 because thats when wind waker launched



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FishyJoe on 17 November 2007
endurance said:

look at the gamecube number

http://vgchartz.com/amonthly.php?month=10&year=2002&console=&maker=&boxartz=1

http://vgchartz.com/amonthly.php?month=11&year=2002&console=&maker=&boxartz=1


Did you even run the numbers? If anything, this confirms that the 2.5x multiplier is close. 



endurance on 17 November 2007
FishyJoe said:
endurance said:

look at the gamecube number

http://vgchartz.com/amonthly.php?month=10&year=2002&console=&maker=&boxartz=1

http://vgchartz.com/amonthly.php?month=11&year=2002&console=&maker=&boxartz=1


Did you even run the numbers? If anything, this confirms that the 2.5x multiplier is close. 


i know its close but in 2004 and 2005 it multiplies by 3



FishyJoe on 17 November 2007

Nobody claims the multiplier is exact. It's just a way to establish a holiday baseline based on past data.



endurance on 17 November 2007
FishyJoe said:
Nobody claims the multiplier is exact. It's just a way to establish a holiday baseline based on past data.

yep i know what you are saying its just that i think ps3 will do atleast 375k



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Erik Aston on 17 November 2007

I'll repost what I did when I saw this at Wired:



Good post from Harris, but we should account for another historical trend... Which is that XBox has historically sold roughly 500K every November, and 1M in December. Harris himself posted the 470K for Nov 02 and 480K for Nov 03, while in Nov 06 XBox360 did 511K. (November 2004 saw over 700K sold thanks to Halo 2.)

From Jan-Aug 2007 XBox360 has not vastly outperformed previous years, and the October 366K included the tail end of the Halo spike. November shouldn't be expected to follow a 2.5x increase to over 900K. If the numbers for Nov show 650K XBox360s sold, it would be a surprisingly high number, not a surprisingly low one.


And as for PS3, we should also consider that a lot of the traditional November bump likely comes from Black Friday and the last week of the month. So a big bump early in November for PS3 is probably significant. But then it probably isn't "the breakthrough we've been waiting for" for Sony, either, especially considering Nintendo came back and basically said "we still sold more."



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Just_Ben on 18 November 2007
NJ5 said:

Of course there are all sorts of factors involved (price cuts, bundles, etc). But that kind of stuff happens pretty much in every Christmas, what this analysis shows us is how much demand we can reasonably expect for each product.

The fact that the multipliers were so stable in previous years may well mean this is a pretty accurate rule.

EDIT - after dividing the numbers, I can see that it's not quite as stable as the writer makes it seem. November seems to be anywhere from 2 to 3.

 

Even more jumpierer than that. The GC had more than a 5 once.

 



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HappySqurriel on 18 November 2007

This is a good (very rough) analysis of what should happen because many/most of the factors that encourage people to buy a console for christmas are factored into sales in October. Lower cost consoles near the end of their lives (and portable systems) generally get a bigger boost because they make very good presents for younger children; because of this I would expect the Gameboy Advance and PS2 to both get much better sales than his analysis would lead you to believe.

 



revolutions on 18 November 2007

My November NPD Predictions: Guaranteed Wii - over a mill (likely around 1.2m) DS - over a mill (likely 1.1m) Most Likely X360 - 750-850k PSP - 500-550k PS3 - 300-400k (price drop should help it sniff 400k) PS2 - 300-350k GBA - 150k My December NPD Predictions: Guaranteed Wii - over 2m (likely 2.2m) DS - 1.8-2.1m Most Likely X360 - 1.4-1.6m PSP - 900k - 1.0m PS3 - 650-800k PS2 - 500-600k GBA - 300k It'll be a Nintendo Christmas. ;)



WiiFit will be 2008 #1 selling game in NORTH AMERICA!  
End of '08 Predictions: Wii - 48m X360 - 25m  PS3 - 19m
Wii monthly NA sales will top 400k every month in '08. *Jan sales ruined it. Grrrr!*
WiiFit will top 1m in sales in its first month of release in North America.
MGS4 will NOT be released in '08. *Darn it!* FF13 will NOT be released in '08.
Rockband Wii will top 600k in first month sales in North America.
WiiFit will pass the PS3 WW sales by Xmas '09.

Avinash_Tyagi on 18 November 2007

Only thing going to limit Wii sales will be supply, I expect every Wii that comes to the states to be gone



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)