last year, someone made an epic bet thread on whether nsmb wii could sell 11 m illion copies in it's first year or not. obviousely, many people feasted on crow from that bet. now, i would like ask you guys if nsmb wii could possibly sell 20 million copies in it's first year (up until november 13th, 2010, right?). I think it could. heres some boring data to look a little into it.

as of february 20th (all worldwide)

nsmb wii is at 12,214,162 in sells

it needs 7.787,838 more sells to make it

there are 38 weeks left for the game to get there.

it would have to sell an average of about 205k a week to make it

it just sold 249,053 copies this week.

obviousely, sells will fall some over the next weeks, but they will jumb up closer to the holiday (it needs to make it by nov 13th though, so that might not help much)

what do you guys think? and would you like to make a bet thread out of this?

I think 18 or 19 million but 20 would be cool:)

Certainly possible. This is a sales beast not seen before.

Well if it sells on average of 200,000 for the next 38 weeks then it'll sell 7.6 million or just short of the mark. Which basically means it is in no way out of the question. But if it does it, it will barely do it. We aren't going to see it explode past the number. Also we have to remember, the game is slowing down in Japan, although slowly, it'll eventually be on the 20k-40k a week part there.

Also, we have to factor in how Galaxy 2 will affect sales. 2d or 3d, Mario is still the game and there is no telling how the game will affect sales of the title. It's arguable that Mario Kart Wii hurt the sales of Galaxy 1 so who knows here. Also when Wii's become a little more plentiful in America, we could see potential increases, especially in September and October right before that November deadline.

So it's hard to say and obviously lots of factors, but I think I'm going to say it will fall short. It'll probably be in the 17-18 million time frame by the middle of November. And more than likely in those last 6-7 weeks of the year it'll be able to go over 20 million before 2010 ends. Either way, it's a record which no other single game has done before.

It will be close if it does. Also, so many games coming out this year although that one is will still be near the top I am sure. But hey it is Ninty if any one can make it happen its them.

I think the game will just barely miss 20 million by its first birthday. I predict it will have sold about 19.5 million copies. I don't think Galaxy will effect NSMBWii sales that much either way-- I think the customers differentiate between the 2D and the 3D Mario games and think of them as different series.

I don't see what stopping it, so I say yes.

yes, its got another whole Christmas ahead of it

Possibly. Depends on how sales hold up now and what happens near the holidays.

It could, it's already the fastest selling game