Yes that a very good point, but I think apple is more toward the mobile space right now , which is not to say they would not also be in the mix in the mobile game's handheld  market which they are to some extent already. but for topset box living room, I do not think so just yet., Hey Apple has 24% of the mobile smart phone market! and they did it in a very short ammount of time, so anything is possible.

Going by the sales numbers in the OP...

PS3's 1st year was 17.9% of the PS2's 1st year.
PS3's 2nd year was 43.8% of the PS2's 2nd year.
PS3's 3rd year was 42.9% of the PS2's 3rd year.
PS3's 4th year was 63.2% of the PS2's 4th year.

Yet some people expect that after 10 years, PS3 will have sold 71.4% as much as the PS2?

It would need to start selling at PS2 levels or DS levels for a while to catch up to where you guys think it can go. It's just not going to happen.

This. I do not think that Natal or the Arc are going to extend this generation. They are add ons and can be improved upon for the next iteration of those consoles and add on as well. Plus we do not know how the consumer is going to respond to these new devices.

You just had to use a fatality move didnt you?

Carl2291 said: As twesterm says... Possible - Yes Likely - Not so much I really hope it does happen though

I think I'm gonna jump in on this one also!

More likely to be around 80 million.

I don't think it will get to 100m. PS3 hardware should peak this year, or from mid 2010 to mid 2011 if it hasn't already. Software is definitely near its peak unless Arc throws a wrench in the pattern, that is for sure. Here is a visual/chart-astic look at software shipments by year in millions worldwide (Jan-Dec to match up with real years).

2010 is a better lineup than 2009, but probably not enough to push PS3 software massively higher than 2009. You can see below that the PS3 audience, as it broadens to less dedicated gamers is also less satisfied with software (as is the case with every system ever released). With the amount of software PS3 is pushing/getting at the moment price drops will not push hardware levels much higher than they are. There should be a slow decline from the 2010/2011 peak, but no console that was an established brand (i.e. NES & PS1 are exceptions) has ever tripled its lifetime total from its fourth Christmas to its final figures. PS2 essentially doubled its total from the fourth Christmas to lifetime.  Moreover, PS3 is behind PS1 in Japan and the Americas in sellthrough at comparable time frames, and it isn't like Sony is going to be cutting off another $300 on the PS3 price in the next three years. So 65m-75m is about right for PS3, with ~650m-700m retail game shipments. Both figures are about half the PS2 level.

Look at the growth year to year from PS3 sales. Keep in mind it will continue to grow for another 2-3 years while PS2 decides to die off. The software is really ramping up for PS3 as developers get a solid working engine in their studios and get used to working on the platform. Also keep in mind that as the price drops sales go up dramatically. $249 and eventually $199 price points will be huge sales. I expect this year the PS3 will sell 14 million, then next year 17 million.

On top of all those points above I expect the sales to also surge as 360 starts to show its age and people just get tired of Wii's non-HD capability.

Everyone needs to remember, the console is FAR from its peak record year sales. It's still $299. That's what 360 launched at and STILL $50 more than Wii launched at. A lot of people just can't afford $299 right now (+ another 120 or so for a couple games when you buy it).

A few things I do want to point out

• The PS3 is driven by price cuts, not by software sales.
• Software sales have been pretty bad. The best selling PS3 game was MGS4 at ~4 million. The 360 has Halo 3 at ~10 million and the Wii has multiple titles over 10 million. The PS3 has no killer app, and it doesn't look to get one ever.
• The latest figure have Sony losing $18 on each PS3 sold. If it was at least $18 thoughout the system's lifecycle, it would have lost $583,560,000. Now, while not exact, this is still a lot of money to lose in 3 to 4 years. And this is just on a videogame console.
• Software is lacking on both the PS3 and the 360. Titles like Bayonette, Dante's Inferno and Dark Void have done poorly and a lot of the titles coming up (save FF13) have little potential to push the system or even make good sales numbers.

Unless Arc takes off (which is doubtful) the PS3 is pretty much over. There is no way the company can recoupe their loses on the system and it has little room for growth. All sales boost for the system are temporary and there isn't much hope of getting it to go anywhere. I doubt the PS3 will stay on the shelves for 10 years.

Never going to happen imo, I'll keep my reasons to myself though.