mrstickball said: Squirrel - I understand that Nintendo can easily get warehouses to hold Wiis in, as they do that with DSes. Here's my issue: The Wii is selling right now @ 1.0m units per month (give or take). Nintendo will increase their abilities to 1.1m or 1.2m in April and stay at that. Now, the question is, how are they going to increase SUPPLY in the holiday months? They won't buy/purchase/aquire more factories (atleast at a very large #), but they will do like you said: store Wii units. The issue with that is it lowers the 1.2m "average" which is exactly that, an average, and that's what I meant it as. I believe Nintendo might sell 1.0m units a month from now till October (on average), and stockpile the extra 200,000 units each month to then give them an extra 1.6m units for the holidays. Again, my number of 1.2m a month for the next 12 months is just an average based on maximum possible sellthrough + the fact that Nintendo will decrease their supply to retailers in the months preceeding November-December, as every company does.

mrstickball said: 80 million IS alot. Especially if it's only over a 4-5 year period. Only Sony has reached the production abilities to do those kinds of numbers. Even the DS, after 3-4 years, is only at 39m in this cycle.

Christopher_G2 said: Potential to reach the 80 million mark. Wii: Slim chance. I see it breaking records for console sales in it's first two years, but as the prices of the other two get cheaper the casual gamers will move from the Wii to the more technologically advanced consoles. I estimate 50-70 million total. 360: Probably no chance unless it does much better in Europe. I think Sony will eventually beat them there, and as the 360 is a non-factor in Japan there's no way the US market can make enough difference to push it that high. I see 45-60 million in the end. PS3: Probably the best chance of the three if it has a long lifespan, and Blue Ray wins the high def DVD wars. Also no one should underestimate the Sony brand name. People aren't buying it in large numbers now because of it's high price, but as it comes down and big beautiful games come out many of those PS2 owners will come back around. This is the hardest of the three to predict. I see anywhere from 40 million to 90 million depending on numerous factors. If I had to guess I would say no system this gen will cross the 80 million mark, though the DS will definetly end up crossing that mark.

auroragb said: MS has shown that it's interested in 4 year console cycles (probably because of its PC roots), so chances are, it will be MS delivering a new console in 2010 instead of NTDO)

HappySqurriel said: Why would you assume that the PS3 will have a long life span? Every console ever released which was not in the #1 console in the world after 24 months had a life span of under 72 months ... Please inform me why things that have never happened in the history of videogames will happen for the PS3; why it's current poor sales will not eliminate its third party support, why it will suddenly become popular 2 years after its release and why it will live forever inspite of poor sales? It is way too early to determine how this will end up, but with current sales the Wii could be at 18 Million by the end of 2007, the XBox 360 will be at 16 and the PS3 could be at 8, by the end of 2008 the Wii could have sold 40 Million consoles, the XBox 360 at 22 and the PS3 at 18; why would you assume that there would be any major third party support left for the PS3, or that there would be a high level of consumer interest? I'm not saying this is what will happen, but I would say if Sony doesn't change something soon this is what will happen.

stof said: Why is it that the Wii's lack of power compared to the PS3 and 360 will suddenly become a problem in 4-5 years? I still don't follow that line of reasoning. Also, It's not that Sony was the only company with the ability to produce so many consoles, it's that they were the only company with a console that that many people wanted to buy. If the Wii continues to sell PS2 like numbers, expect production to meet supply And the DS wasn't always selling the way it is now. in Europe and NA, it's only been since the Summer of 06 that the system suddenly hit most wanted status. Besides, they'll keep making the system as long as people buy it. Yes, the DS is supply constrained right now, but once again, supply will eventually meet demand.

Stromprophet said: stof said: Why is it that the Wii's lack of power compared to the PS3 and 360 will suddenly become a problem in 4-5 years? I still don't follow that line of reasoning. Also, It's not that Sony was the only company with the ability to produce so many consoles, it's that they were the only company with a console that that many people wanted to buy. If the Wii continues to sell PS2 like numbers, expect production to meet supply And the DS wasn't always selling the way it is now. in Europe and NA, it's only been since the Summer of 06 that the system suddenly hit most wanted status. Besides, they'll keep making the system as long as people buy it. Yes, the DS is supply constrained right now, but once again, supply will eventually meet demand. Uh.....DS is supplied constrained in some places cause Nintendo can't get their manufacturing together. So why is it unreasonable to conclude they may have the same issues with Wii? From my perspective in recent years Nintendo has proved they are a horrible manufacturer. And their is a reason, they don't have a manufacturing arm so they have to rely on outsourcing and contracting. I'd like to point out that PS2 was much closer in terms of functionality and ability to gamecube and Xbox than Wii is to the 360 and PS3. And I think that will become important in a few years. In fact, PS2 has been able to rival GC and Xbox now in terms of graphics, just see a game like God of War 2. Wii will never come close no matter how hard devs work or how much they exploit the system. Graphics aren't all important, but in terms of specs of the system Wii is no where close to the other 2 and that will matter at some point to some gamers.

Stromprophet said: Uh.....DS is supplied constrained in some places cause Nintendo can't get their manufacturing together. So why is it unreasonable to conclude they may have the same issues with Wii? From my perspective in recent years Nintendo has proved they are a horrible manufacturer. And their is a reason, they don't have a manufacturing arm so they have to rely on outsourcing and contracting.

robjoh said: So please again: Why should power start matter in 2 years when it doesn't now? Wii is already outdated graphic wise, so why should 2 years do so much?