Unlike furby the wii is constantly updating with new software that will add to the users experience, even if it is a "fad" like you say people will still be playing there system 6 months down the line and no doubt they will find another game that they want to play and so on and so on. Going by your logic is the ds a fad?

See, this is what I find funny. If you don't know WHY N64 and GC sales dropped quickly, how can you accurately predict if Wii sales will follow that trend? Anyways... This is nothing like the last few Nintendo launches... Wii has already sold 40% of GC's lifetime total outside of NA... And further... As I said... NES was outdated in 1983... In fact, just like Wii, NES was intentionally built to be outdated. That's the Yokoi school of hardware design: outdated specs, focus on user-experience, sometimes an innovative control input, always launch with disruptive software. Despite being mocked for how outdated it was in 1983 and during the American launch in 1985, NES remained viable right into the early 90s, a couple years after the release of SNES. Things have not changed so much today. A console built with several years old technology in 1983 is viable in 1991, far outlasting more powerful console-like PCs. A console built with several years old technology in 2006 is viable in 2014, far outlasting more powerful PC-like consoles. HD doesn't change this at all. HD penetration will shoot sky high when prices come down far enough. Which means your average HDTV owner is not going to be someone who is really invested in the extra pixels. If they want a console, it will be the one with the great games they keep hearing about, period. And no, the other consoles cannot just go and add Wiimotes. Don't ask ME why, ask Gunpei Yokoi. That outdated hardware keeps the price down. That disruptive software creates the sales. Now you've got a price advantage, a cheap-to-develop-for system, with an audience looking for more innovative (read: high profit margin) software, possibly an install base lead, and you've got people talking about your competitors product using your brand name (ie, when PS3 releases its motion/point remote, people are going to call it "PS3's Wiimote.") Its Yokoi to a "T." Its Game Boy to a "T." Outdated hardware at launch. Innovative non-game pack-in "fad" which fuels a whole year+ of sales. Maintain sales even as new visual standard is ushered in (uh... color... some would say it makes a bigger difference than HD). Sales peak after 6, 7, 8 years? That remains to be seen, but I'll tell you this: we're nowhere close to a sales peak yet.

So why dont nintendo ramp up production, and mass produce some 60million this year, as since it's so great, everyone will buy it? Right? My point is. If ***FURBY*** sells 24million in 12 months. That is a base number for where a 'fad' can sell. Useless... Stupid... Pointless... and it sells 24 *MILLION* Now look at the Wii. If outdated hardware is... good... why not keep with the old hardware?

Production: Fad or not, it's just not possible to quickly ramp up manufacturing base by like 200%, because of the entire supply chain invovlved. In fact, even for something like Furby or Super Soaker which are basically a one-stop productions, it takes about another a calendar quarter to increase the production base that much. Nintendo doesn't make consoles, neither do the Toy companies actually make the toys. Hardware: not that outdated hardware is good, just that they are perfectly serviceable, and there's a sizeable market for that. Just look at the PS2. When I talk to my friends who are beginning to rekindle their interests in video games because of the Wii, most of them still conclude that buying a PS2 is simply a better buy than the Wii, and I agree with them. This is the PS2 tail effect. Echoing stof, it's simply bad business if over a product's lifetime sales is restricted by production. I think Wii can sell just about 80m. In my mind that's kind of the over/under number. Also, I want to say that the middle class is expanding rapidly in developing nations, which in the 80's have no purchasing power. Unlike software, which can be easily pirated, a console unit sold is a unit sold, and for Nintendo, profit made is profit made. So the entire market is expanding--if sombody is gonna give me 1-1 odds for Wii 80 mil over/under, I'm gonna take over because of this reason, since those who extrapolate from past console sales won't take into account the changing underlying economics.

I'm not saying everyone is buying the Wii because it is a 'fad' but what I am saying is, alot of people are. Are the current sales still being bolstered by the 'great' press, and 'fad' level? How much? My point is, the 'fad' group, is willing to buy 24 *million* useless furbies for their children. Is that why the Wii is still selling like it is? In all honesty the 'good' press is starting to fade from the Wii.

The basic definition of fad is: Definition:a temporary fashion, notion, manner of conduct, etc., esp. one followed enthusiastically by a group. By their nature (only existing for a few years) all consoles are fads; the Playstation, N64 and Saturn were no longer popular in 2001 and are only regaining popularity in a "Retro" way ... It really doesn't matter if the Wii is a fad in the way that you're thinking anyways. With the strong sales of the Wii currently, and the poor sales of the PS3 and XBox 360, the Wii will get (very) strong third party support from Q3 2007 to Q4 2008; if sales continue at a similar pace until the end of 2007 developers will be mainly targeting the Wii. Certainly, some of the people who bought the Wii today will stop playing it (much like people who bought the PS3 will only use it as a Blu-Ray player) but those people will be replaced by people who buy a Wii for the release of Final Fantasy XIV and Dragons Quest 10 (or whatever) if they become Wii exclusives after the Wii sells 25 Million units before the PS3 breaks 8 Million units.

hmm I think Nintendo owns the right for the CPU, but I think IBM is the manufactor of it.

HappySqurriel: It would be funny to see FFXIV on Wii, the big downgrade from FFXIII I think that many fans would be shocked. But I think that DDQ10 will come to Wii, it would be stupid of Squareenix to not make it to Wi. If Wii still have sold more then PS3 in the end of 2008. Because those games are far away, guessing they will start making them the beginning of 2008.

It doesn't matter if the Wii doesn't sell 80m+ units. Say it lasts 4 years, and sells 60m units (a lot). It will be superceded by the "Wii Advance" (or whatever), which will definitely be backwards compatible - hence growing the "Wii" console base past 60m. The same applies to the Xbox1, PS2, etc. If the Wii is still selling like hotcakes in 4 years time, it will be interesting to see what Nintendo do - keep pushing it, or release a new model regardless (they may not) - it is possible that the Wii could be around for a long, long time. But this is likely dependent on the actions of MS/Sony (and the markets response).

@mrstickball Just to point out a small flaw in your trending analysis: console lifespan MS has shown that it's interested in 4 year console cycles (probably because of its PC roots), so chances are, it will be MS delivering a new console in 2010 instead of NTDO) NTDO has shown that it's willing to upgrade hardware while keeping the core. NTDO can release a HDWii and replace Wii like DS lite replaced the DS. Do people track DS fat sales separately from DS Lite sales? Well, most don't (such as this site). btw, iirc, the 45-50 lifetime sales prediction was pre-launch, I don't think they've discussed it since launch. Also, except for maybe the plastic (which I know very little about, tho I can't imagine why it can't be easily produced in mass quantities in China, China is very good at it), the only thing the Wii is constrained by is the CPU and GPU production. Everything else is very commodity. If IBM can be persuaded to up the production, everyone will be in business. I'm just thinking that ramping to 1.2 for all of 2007 is too conservative and makes no sense. Especially since 1.2M will barely meet demand and not allow them to stock up for xmas. I suspect there will be another production boost to 1.5+ later in the year Otherwise, I applaud your well reasoned analysis of Wii Sales potential.