I don't think it will. Maybe it will hit 55 Million when the gen ends and then it will just die off.

You realize that at the end of 2010 the 360 will be nearly at 50 million already. So you predict that 2011 is the end for the 360?

I don't believe that you can expect impulse buyers to come out in droves big enough to buck the natural trend of sales decreasing as a system gets older. We are in the peak of this generation -- absolutely -- but reaching the peak of this generation has resulted in a PS3 sales explosion while the 360 has seen little or no sales benefit. America is the only region where the 360 can outsell the PS3, and the 360 isn't outselling the PS3 in big enough margins even with huge exclusives (Mass Effect 2) moving consoles. The PS3 has outsold the 360 weekly worldwide pretty consistently for 2010 and it began to do so in the end of 2009. The 360 is going to have to start outselling the PS3 consistently if there's any hope for it to sell 10 million in 2011, much less in 2010.

The 360 has been underselling itself year-over-year by about 13% for multiple weeks in 2010 now. If that trend continues, which I strongly believe it will, and the 360's total sales for 2010 ends up 13% below the total sales for 2009, the 360 will sell 9.2 million in 2010. With a 13% reduction already setting in for 2010 and the threat of a new generation looming for 2011, Natal is going to have to be one great console mover for the 360 to even reach 9 million in 2011.

7 million 360s is not "tanking." That's a reduction of about a third -- as a much younger console in 2007, the 360 moved 7.8 million units. 7 million is far from a "ridiculous" number. The 360 has had quite an impressive run of huge exclusives in the past couple years, and even with that, it has failed to sell at a pace that will make 70 million a legitimate projection.

If Natal is successful, of course, all of this can be thrown out and the 360 may well move to 80 million. It's all about the price, the performance, and the developer support.

@Polarimetric,

You do realize that the 360 will be price adjusted in 2010. There is no avoiding this and that like the 360 price adjustment in 2008 and the PS3 price adjustment in 2009 will have signifigant impact. People that believe the 360 will just start slowing down and dwindle to next to nothing in the next 2-3 years assume the 360 has hit the lowest price point it will hit.

As for comparing to other generations the comparison cant be made. This generation will be the first generation with 3 consoles over 50 million. The assumption that because MS will end the 360 life early because the Xbox ended after 4 years make a poor assumption. They have not looked into why MS ended the 360 early. This generation is far from over. With MS making the big investment of Natal is a total tell that MS has no plans for a new Xbox in 2011 and maybe not even 2012.

In the next 5-10 years

Major Nelson says yes

It depends solely on how good Natal is and how supported it will be by devs AND consumers. If it's awesome, the 360 can take on some of the Wii market (I'm NOT suggesting it becomes that popular, btw). Then yes, definitely. If Natal flames out in a ball of smoking wreckage? Then they are in trouble, because MS has put a LOT of eggs in this basket.

But you know, everything MS has gambled on has worked fairly well. There are hits and misses, but for the most part they have made good choices. I don't think they'd go "all in" on natal if they didn't think they had something strong.

We shall see. I am a huge consumer of 360 games and Natal doesn't really interest me right now. But to get to 70 million, it's not me that they need to buy in. It's soccer mom and high school kid.

No I hate Microsoft and wish it the worst. Hahah but honestly and in terms of reality I would say nope not possible. The market isnt big enough to support that much amount because if 360 reaches 70 then what will the ps3? around 70 as well and the Wii will be around ps2 levels. I'm sorry but I only see that happening if Wii owners and ps3 alike see 360 as another console to buy, reality says that wont happen.

A few factors. First, Natal has to be huge, like Wii Fit huge. AND this gen has to last until 2013 or later. If only the first factor, the next Xbox will cannibalise the sale because it will obviously support Natal. If only the second they won't be able to pull off the numbers each year. IT doesn't seem likely to me, but it probably does to an MS fan.