I don't see it being a console seller, but that is just me.

if im going to do i want to wait for the summer price cuts maybe i can get a arcade for 150$ or elite for 250$ my friends that have 360 are all gone so i dont have a 360 to mess with

I find it hard to expect anything more than a few consoles. It is a new IP, but I don't see it bringing it thousands and thousands of new 360 owners.

So a few consoles for me.

I don't see how Uncharted 2 could have its spike but this game couldn't. Alan Wake is like a survival horror/psychological thriller game right? It's entirely possible that much of this audience doesn't have a 360 yet. If this was yet another shooter, barely anyone would buy a 360 for it. But this seems different from typical 360 fare (yeah there are survival horror games on 360. Deadly Premonition just came out. But that game has no name value).

First week bump will be comparable with Uncharted 2's. I don't know how much that was, 10K 20K?

But in the long run, like with all AAA exclusives, Alan Wake will help to sell tens of thousands of consoles, because it strengthens the high quality exclusive library of the console, it's just that the extra console sales will come over such a long time (months) that it's impossible to trace them in weekly sales trends.

Also, most people don't decide to buy a console based on only one game, but on at least a handful, but in a part of those decisions Alan Wake (just like any other great game) will be the tipping point for some people to go out and buy a 360.

Well, I think Alan Wake looks hugely like a US version (more thriller / less horror) take on Silent Hill, particularly Silent Hill 2, so that doesn't surprise me at all.  Both areguably are very reminicent of Twin Peaks of course, and I believe Remedy have openly cited Twin Peaks as an inspiration.

Twin Peaks - TV at its finest!  How I love thee!  Sorry, going off topic there.

I don't think they're testing the water though, I've 99.9% sure this is MS wanting the title as a 360 exclusive - a true one, not a console exclusive.  I also feel with the title initially being seen as pushing the envelope on PC MS were worried that if development continued on PC the PC version might be seen as the definitive version pushing boundaries and the 360 version the downscaled console version.

I suppose it might see the light of day on PC eventually, but for now I think this is going to a dusty room to hang around with the potential PC version of Gears 2.

What does that translate to in numbers? 40-50K?

Okay, I doubt we'll see that kind of a spike for Alan Wake, but as I said my point is that the long-term hardware boost is much bigger, but untracable.

EDIT: PS3 ww sales pre Uncharted 2 release: 231K. PS3 ww at Uncharted 2 release week: 255k. Net gain 24K.

Yeah it was something like 25% in NA at least.

And yea individual high-quality exclusives don't have too much of an effect. But the cumulative effect of multiple high-quality exclusives can influence sales. While console exclusives sell well on the 360, 360 exclusives do a better job of convincing PC and PS3/PC gamers to get a 360. Though like I've said, there's always going to be a segment of PC gamers and PS3/PC gamers who won't bite no matter what and make up excuses for why they wouldn't get a 360 to cover up their bias (ie. The popular mention that all the good 360 games (unavailable to PS3) are on PC. That is cop out because it's complete bs that all the quality 360 games (unavailable to PS3) are on PC. There are other reasons not to get another console but the quality excuse doesn't fly. All three consoles have numerous quality exclusives)

not being on PC might cause a bigger HW bump also as 360 is the only place to get it those who want it day 1 or month 1 will have to get a 360 at least as of now

if i were MS i wouldnt share games with PC keep doing it 360 only they should try to kill off PC gaming IMO

It looks like Alan Wake won't even push any games signatured by this title :p There are no preorders for the game, I think that the hype for it has died long ago and M$ will have to go ape shit to properly advertise the game.