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Forums - Sales - The Official October NPD thread (data should be out momentarily)

Zucas said:
Well there are issues with comparing sales to shipments. One we don't know what the sold to shipped ratio is. Second you could have things like channel stuffing which MS did last year. Thirdly have companies do production shipments like Sony.

All these things could inhibit figuring out the sold to ship ratio. I mean the only way you'd be able to really tell if the numbers are wrong is if it was way below 50% sold to shipped or above the total shipped. Which really means you have to be very far off on both spectrums.

I mean if we do that does this really make us any better than nexgenwars.


But for whatever you do at least say there'll be a little adjustments.

 You can only channel stuff so much before people figure it out, Wii is easy because 90-95% of what they ship sells, MS can only stuff so much a million plus tops and by then it'll be public knowledge, ioi can take that information into account, plus he can see how much is on the shelves of the retailers he samples and project how much is on the shelf world wide



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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krik said:
ioi said:
krik, the problem is that the only reason NPD is official is because they have no competition. They are not an officially recognised government body or anything, just the best option we have had until now.

I hope you (and everyone else) sticks with the site. If shipment data and other indicators suggest we are too high or too low for a particular hardware then I will be sure to make adjustments.

Sony's numbers are quoted as being sell-through to consumers, so I think it is a fair comparison. I'm don't think Sony's numbers are right, but I am using it to illustrate that large discrepancies can occur (look at Famitsu vs Media Create Wii sales last 2 months).

NDP is official because they have lots of market data and make a business selling the data to businesses. They must be accurate or their business goes down the drain. Can you say the same thing about this site?

...

Must be accurate? Says who? Who monitors NPD, or gives them any competition - to make sure that they don't get lazy with their figures?

(for all WE know, NPD talks to the platforms holders - and verifies that their numbers aren't WAY out before publishing them). 

I very much doubt that a company is going to purchase the NPD figures - have a read - then say "We want our  money back - we don't like your numbers!". Competition is much more likely to hurt NPD, than for them to release dodgy numbers.

In hindsight, I agree that if we start changing our figures to match NPD - we are meaningless. We need to position ourselves as an independent tracking body - basically competition to the NPD.

Just like Famitsu & MediaCreate in Japan end up with different numbers - so can our numbers vary from the NPD figures. 

...

If NPD really doesn't track/count "bundled" software, then it does mess things up - and make it hard to directly compare. Add to that, that VG tracks all of NA (etc).



Gesta Non Verba

Nocturnal is helping companies get cheaper game ratings in Australia:

Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Oh come on what does NPD have to obtain by messing or posting bad numbers. What would they gain? Apsolutely nothing. It's not like they only have one of the major 3 receiving their numbers. They have all 3. Meaning if they screwed up their numbers in any which direction they'd only be losing consumers.

To keep its major consumers NPD has to get the most accurate numbers as possible. If they distort them or don't check their numbers they only people they hurt is themselves. They may have a monopoly but that monopoly is in check by its consumers such as Nintendo, Sony, and MS. If they don't give out the most accurate numbers they can possibly give then they'll lose consumers such as them 3. Yall act as if this corporation is purposely out their giving us false numbers to make fools of us all.



shams said:

If NPD really doesn't track/count "bundled" software, then it does mess things up - and make it hard to directly compare. Add to that, that VG tracks all of NA (etc).

Doesn't the released top 10 include both versions of Guitar Hero for the PS2? Didn't SimExchange claim to have access (under their agreement with NPD) to the data for both versions of Guitar Hero for the 360? Either the numbers posted on this thread (and on SimExchange, I checked those) are bogus, or Guitar Hero pretty much disproves that theory.

The aparent numbers for Guitar Hero see VGChartz with NPD+60% for the 360 and NPD-50% for the PS2. Who's right? I don't know. And I respect the decision not to change the numbers. But still, it's a big difference, and it doesn't seem to be explained by that theory.



Reality has a Nintendo bias.
Zucas said:
Oh come on what does NPD have to obtain by messing or posting bad numbers. What would they gain? Apsolutely nothing. It's not like they only have one of the major 3 receiving their numbers. They have all 3. Meaning if they screwed up their numbers in any which direction they'd only be losing consumers.

To keep its major consumers NPD has to get the most accurate numbers as possible. If they distort them or don't check their numbers they only people they hurt is themselves. They may have a monopoly but that monopoly is in check by its consumers such as Nintendo, Sony, and MS. If they don't give out the most accurate numbers they can possibly give then they'll lose consumers such as them 3. Yall act as if this corporation is purposely out their giving us false numbers to make fools of us all.

Calm down, we are just saying they are not necessarily accurate. I am also not sure where you get all major 3 correcting their number, you do realize company usually have trade secrets that they'd rather not reveal, right? 



I am a PC gamer, and also have a NDS now, but without access to a Nintendo Wii until End of 2007.

Currently playing: Super Smash Brothers Brawl(Wii), Mystery Dungeon: Shiren the Wanderer(DS), Dragon Quest Heroes: Rocket Slime (DS), WiiFit(Wii)

Games Recently Beaten: Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: My Life as a King (Normal; Very Hard after the next DLCs become available)

1 word: RTFA

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How accurate do they really have to be Zucas, on a monthly basis they can be more off than you seem to think without any concern, they can chalk it up to eroor based on sampling, not to mention they also don't have anyone checking them on a constant basis to tell them if their data is off, no one's saying that they totally pull numbers from thin air, but you shouldn't believe that they are 100% accurate



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Guys everyone here doesn't give NPD enough credit for the accuracy of their data... they would have to be accurate.

The reason for NPD is because they collect all of the information from competitors...

You don't think that Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft track what retailers sell themselves??? You've got to be kidding.  They have accounts with all retailers, and the retailers need to order stock when they run out... they know the numbers with which they sell.

Nintendo Sony and Microsoft know what their own numbers are from retailers directly - I know this for fact - NPD then provides them with the competitor information.  If this information wasn't similar or accurate within 5 or 10% of their internal tracking numbers then they would not longer subscribe to the NPD service.

And for whoever said that NPD doesn't report weekly, please tell me your source.  Any information that I've got tells me that they report weekly to their customers... which they do.



shams said:

NDP is official because they have lots of market data and make a business selling the data to businesses. They must be accurate or their business goes down the drain. Can you say the same thing about this site?

...

Must be accurate? Says who? Who monitors NPD, or gives them any competition - to make sure that they don't get lazy with their figures?

(for all WE know, NPD talks to the platforms holders - and verifies that their numbers aren't WAY out before publishing them). 

I very much doubt that a company is going to purchase the NPD figures - have a read - then say "We want our  money back - we don't like your numbers!". Competition is much more likely to hurt NPD, than for them to release dodgy numbers.

In hindsight, I agree that if we start changing our figures to match NPD - we are meaningless. We need to position ourselves as an independent tracking body - basically competition to the NPD.

Just like Famitsu & MediaCreate in Japan end up with different numbers - so can our numbers vary from the NPD figures. 

...

If NPD really doesn't track/count "bundled" software, then it does mess things up - and make it hard to directly compare. Add to that, that VG tracks all of NA (etc).


 I never said anything about NDP customers asking for their money back when the NDP data is way off. Of course no one will ever do that but I know for sure they will stop paying for it. This means NDP's business will go down the drain.

If you guys want to be taken serious your data cannot be way off like this. It must be on the mark. If NDP and the others release their monthly data based on a much better sample than yours why don't you use use it?

 Remember, the NDP data is trusted by MS/Sony and Nintendo and about everyone else that reads it. On the other hand I keep defending VGC credibility because people make fun of your numbers on gaming sites.... oh well my bad I guess.

 



PSN ID: krik

Optimistic predictions for 2008 (Feb 5 2008): Wii = 20M, PS3 = 14M, X360 = 9.5M

 

ioi said:
We could go into detail on exactly which stores NPD track and which they don't, market shares, extrapolations and so on. But I think it is beyond the scope of this conversation and would probably reveal more than a lot of people would like revealed.

NPD gets around 60% of sales directly (maybe a bit less) and estimates for the remaining 40%. Of course this is a big sample, but when you are missing out whole retail chains it is difficult (as I know) to successfully estimate for their sales.

That said, a 65% discrepancy so Sony's PS3 figures and a 40% discrepancy to our 360 figures is a lot. We could be wrong and they could be right, the truth could lie somewhere in between.

That is up to you guys to decide.

I kind of see what you are saying..... there are ten pies, NPD has it's hands in six of them so it knows how large all six are, but estimates for the other four pies.

VGC has a finger in 9 or even 10 pies so can extrapolate to find the size of each pie relatively accurately, thus less estimating for whole pies we know nothing about like NPD.

 

mmm, pie



krik said:
shams said:

NDP is official because they have lots of market data and make a business selling the data to businesses. They must be accurate or their business goes down the drain. Can you say the same thing about this site?

...

Must be accurate? Says who? Who monitors NPD, or gives them any competition - to make sure that they don't get lazy with their figures?

(for all WE know, NPD talks to the platforms holders - and verifies that their numbers aren't WAY out before publishing them).

I very much doubt that a company is going to purchase the NPD figures - have a read - then say "We want our money back - we don't like your numbers!". Competition is much more likely to hurt NPD, than for them to release dodgy numbers.

In hindsight, I agree that if we start changing our figures to match NPD - we are meaningless. We need to position ourselves as an independent tracking body - basically competition to the NPD.

Just like Famitsu & MediaCreate in Japan end up with different numbers - so can our numbers vary from the NPD figures.

...

If NPD really doesn't track/count "bundled" software, then it does mess things up - and make it hard to directly compare. Add to that, that VG tracks all of NA (etc).


I never said anything about NDP customers asking for their money back when the NDP data is way off. Of course no one will ever do that but I know for sure they will stop paying for it. This means NDP's business will go down the drain.

If you guys want to be taken serious your data cannot be way off like this. It must be on the mark. If NDP and the others release their monthly data based on a much better sample than yours why don't you use use it?

Remember, the NDP data is trusted by MS/Sony and Nintendo and about everyone else that reads it. On the other hand I keep defending VGC credibility because people make fun of your numbers on gaming sites.... oh well my bad I guess.

 

Yet if VGC bases their numbers on NPD they become entirely pointless. If your going to be a tracking firm you need to be an entirely seperate entity to all other tracking firms in existence, correcting your numbers to match another firms makes you entirely irrelevant. Personally I'm glad Ioi no longer corrects to match NPD numbers as we have no guarantee of their accuracy either.