In light of the overwhelming success of the Wii, the PS3 and Xbox 360 have been held by fans as the last bastions of hardcore gaming.  It's with some irony, then, that the battle for second place may just be decided by the platforms' respective motion controllers.

Sony and Microsoft first showed off their respective motion controllers at last year's E3 expo.  Sony announced their still unnamed motion wands and Microsoft unveiled Project Natal, with both motion controllers representing two radically different approaches to gesture-based gaming.  Sony's motion wands took a more familiar route, offering up a very familiar Wii-like experience, using two handheld devices that are tracked by an external camera.  Microsoft's Project Natal, on the other hand, forwent traditional handheld controllers altogether, with the player's body acting as the controller.  With both motion controllers due in time for a holiday release, analysts agree that the motion controllers may just decide on which platform takes the crown for second place in the console war. 

Until the the platform holders release their corresponding motion controllers, analysts anticipate that the two HD platforms will perform similarly at retail.  Sony's diverse catalog of  first party exclusive titles and robust features are expected to help the console stay on par with the established Xbox brand.

“I think that sales will be similar, as long as price is similar,” says Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter. “PS3 has Blu-ray going for it, and Xbox 360 has a well-developed Xbox Live experience. First party exclusives are similar.“

“The PS3 and Xbox 360 will run neck-and-neck for the next 6 months.  Exclusive releases such as God of War III, Heavy Rain, MAG, and Gran Turismo 5 will help keep momentum in Sony’s favor through the summer months,” agrees Jesse Divnich, Vice President of Analyst Services at EEDAR. “Once the Natal is released, however, we do project that the Xbox 360 could regain the lead for a short period of time.”

Project Natal's simplicity and ease of use is expected to give it the edge over the Sony's motion wands at launch.  Natal requires only a standalone camera, which is speculated to be available at a very consumer friendly price point, and may even be bundled with new Xbox 360s.  Sony's controller set up is more complex, requiring the motion controllers as well as the PlayStation Eye camera, and is also expected to launch at a higher price.

“I think that the Sony motion controller will have some problems gaining traction, since it is not an “in the box” solution.  That will probably limit adoption to one or two million at the outset,” predicts Pachter.  “Natal is different... It’s only one piece (the camera), is likely to be cheaper, and I think it will come in the Xbox 360 package with new consoles once launched, meaning far deeper penetration.”

Software is still the biggest driver of hardware, and may be the determining factor of which platform will be more successful.  Both Sony and Microsoft are committed to their motion peripherals, with both platform holders scrambling to win over third party publishers.  Right now, third party support seems pretty split, with Eastern developers favoring Sony's wands and Western developers backing Project Natal.  Resident Evil 5 producer Jun Takeuchi stated that Japanese developers are responding to Natal “like it's a new problem that they have”.  Meanwhile, Western publishers like UbiSoft have praised Natal as a “paradigm shift”.  UbiSoft in particular is publishing ten Natal titles, but only four or five motion wand titles.

Ultimately, though, the initial push of to get the motion controllers out to the consumer may determine which platform will get better third party support.  Pachter projects that Sony's inability to gain traction on the onset may push software publishers towards Natal.

“Sony’s internal development is top notch, so I expect the launch titles to be fun, and likely on par with Wii Sports for quality, but ultimately, I think that the motion controller will only sell to 20% or less of the PS3 audience, limiting it’s appeal to third party publishers,” says Pachter.  “A year or so after launch, there will be 10 million [Project Natal units] out there, which will probably attract more third party support. Also, I think Microsoft will subsidize third party development to make it a success.”

Both Sony and Microsoft are set to reveal more on their motion controllers at the upcoming 2010 E3 convention.

http://www.ps3center.net/article/380/1/motion-controllers-to-decide-second-place-in-console-war/

Regardless of which one works better or enhances games more, I believe that Natal will be far more successful than the Wand. It just has that 'something new' feel to it that everyone loves.

For the past three years, the main deciding factor for second place has been which console launched first. I don't think that crucial factor is going to be supplanted this year.

Both consoles cut price, both consoles come out with big exclusive games... and both consoles are launching new motion controller peripherals. The gap has stayed relatively static at 6-8 million through it all.

There are two main routes that this could take:

1. Sony's motion controller becomes compatible with the Wii (somewhat) allowing more games to be co-developed between the PS3 and Wii. This singles out the 360 and Natal, isolating its audience and lowering its developer support.

2. Natal takes off, while the Arc fizzles out. Microsoft integrates Natal into the Xbox Live community games (such as Uno), and simplifies the control scheme; all while implementing the device in several big name games. The 360's gap over the PS3 widens, and the Xbox brand gains an entirely unique and popular control scheme.

Number 2 is more likely, but I'd rather see #1 happen (mainly because it's pretty much the closest we'll get this gen to a Wii HD, with big HD games implementing motion controls).

I like Montana Rule number 1

I don't know why everyone thinks the Arc is going to fail
It been proven before with the Eyetoy or whatever it called and with a much bigger userbase that people just don't play that way

One of the strong points of the Arc is the PS3 price point. A lot of people who would come to a store and look at the Wii would see the PS3 over there with it Arc and the camera and a bundled game and that what could make the Arc successful

Wii = 200$

PS3 + Arc + Camera + Game = 400$

You can say that it might receive a price cut and hit the 350$ with this bundle, but then the Wii could be even lower than 200$ also.

That's why I think both motion control solutions will flop. They're not standart, they're unknown to the casual market at this point, and they will be launching with just a few games in a sea of motion control games monopolized already by Nintendo.

I see this as I see other companies trying to follow iPhone, as much as their products are better than iPhone (HTC for instance) those devices are for the casual crowd "just an iphone imitation". That's why iphone sells the most.

I agree. I'm more hyped up for Natal.

Which has been talked about more on the forums? Natal or Arc?

Which has the marketing and development support budget behind it? Natal or Arc?

Which has the mindshare amongst the public? Natal or Arc?

Which has the most unique selling points vs Nintendo Wii? Natal or Arc?

It's not my intention to troll, but how can someone (namely the casual crowd that might mean about 80% of the Natal future sales) be hyped for a camera?

They've seen it already on PS2 with the Eye Toy and I'm sure Sony will market the wand has having a camera too. So Microsoft will be the one lacking a wiimotesque controller. Onlye having a "Eye toy like" camera.

Despite Natal technology being superior to Eye Toy, the ordinary costumer doesn't give a shit about that. Only us, the forum users, are informed about it.

The PS3 was waaaaaaaay superior to the PS2, did it granted its sales? NO, it failed miserably in its first years for lacking of a fair pricetag, good games and something that makes the platform unique (home, exclusives, massified blu ray).

Natal is way superior to Eye Toy, we can all agree with this. But doesn't have the "something new" feeling at all.

Its like Eye Toy 2nd Gen is coming for the casual costumer.