Ok, in the videogame industry, a lot of stuff moves consoles, but a major factor in continued hardware sales is momentum. My thoughts on momentum say that if you have it, don't let it go, it's elusive. In my experience, bandwagon jumpers, following trends, generate far more sales for a console than do the actual events that got the momentum going in the first place.

Last month, PS3 had momentum. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thought 09 wasn't a great year for the PS3 and sales showed it.

Problem is, the competition is also trying to build momentum, and it appears to be working, if January NPD is any indication.

Microsoft is looking to have a killer year this year. We've all seen this article:

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http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=101081&page=1#

Microsoft's robust X10 video game showcase this week in San Francisco was just the tip of the iceberg for the Xbox 360's 2010 offerings, Microsoft's Aaron Greenberg told Kotaku.

"To be this early in the year and able to have an E3-quality line-up with triple-A blockbuster titles, that really speaks to how big a year this will be for us," said Greenberg, director of Product Management for Xbox 360 and Xbox LIVE. "This is just a glimpse of the quality of products we're going to bring throughout the full year."

The day-long X10 event included a chance to talk to the people behind a laundry list of big games including Alan Wake, Halo: Reach, Fable III, Splinter Cell Conviction, Dead Rising 2, Lost Planet 2, Crackdown 2 and new content for Left 4 Dead 2.

"If you're a core gamer we've never ever had a line-up like this all in one year, plus [motion control add-on Project] Natal, plus everything we're doing around [online service] Xbox Live innovation," he said. "Last year we saved a lot of our big news for E3. This year we absolutely have a lot of big news for E3, but we have so much that we are starting early.

"It's going to be a big year... it's going to be the biggest year in the history of Xbox."

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We've also seen NPD, which indicated that in the month of January, in the US at least, PS3 lost some of that momentum and Microsoft gained it.

But wait.....here's the kicker.

Sony is to blame for this momentum loss.

They didn't produce enough consoles to meet demand, so demand went elsewhere. Unfortunately, this was during a very crucial time. A time when their momentum was at its height.

Furthermore, from another article:

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http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=101062&page=1#

Sony's senior director of corporate communications Patrick Seybold issued a statement after last night's NPD numbers for January, explaining that the company's flagship console may be a bit difficult to find at retail over the next few months. "We're working very hard with our retail partners to meet consumer interest, but the demand is tremendously high for the PS3 and we expect tight inventory in the coming months," Seybold notes in the statement.

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Meaning, that Sony will continue to lose momentum due to these shortages over the coming months, when MS has arguably its biggest lineup of any year since the launch of the original Xbox, along with the launch of project Natal.

Now, we've seen a turnaround for the PS3 lately, but at the very least, with Reach, Natal, Fable, and all kinds of other stuff hitting the 360 over the next few months, can Sony afford shortages, without losing even more momentum?

The first price cut was hugely anticipated. While I think that momentum could be regained with another significant price cut, I highly doubt they would be able to produce enough consoles to meet the demand for such a spike in the near future, and while this is certainly a marathon, this if the first time since the pricecut that I've ever doubted Sony's ability to come in second this genration when the smoke has cleared. That second price cut was supposed to be the knockdown blow, not a grasp to stay in the race.

Perhaps Sony underestimated demand when initially producing the slim, but pulling a Wii might not have the same effect it did on demand, for the PS3 due to several differences..

Agree or disagree, and why?

In this thread, I really only saw you mention NPD (where the 360 regularly outsells the PS3), and not worldwide sales. The PS3 is still outselling the 360 worldwide week after week even with Mass Effect 2 and its 1 million + launch. Additonally, the big 360 games you mentioned aren't coming in the next few months. They're all at least half a year away. And to top that off, there's also a bunch of other big PS3 games (God of War III, Final Fantasy 13, and Gran Turismo 5, which could become the biggest PS3 game yet).

Sony should really only be worried if the 360 has another price cut with random bundles (which they'll probably do). At this point, more and more sequels to series already on the 360 won't put it ahead of the PS3 (at least not worldwide).

I don't really see the need for a thread like this TBH. I see no evidence they have really lost momentum yet and I don't see any evidence that Microsoft has gained any real momentum with  the Xbox 360 since the start of the year. Things are as they were this time last year with the positions in reverse.

This thread is about the question of Sony failing to capitalize on an opponent that is on the ropes, and in doing so, making a blunder that factually is costing them sales in a race that is basically a dead heat..

I'm not talking about static numbers, I'm not saying Sony should be worried, and 6 months is "the next few months," imho.

The truth is, Sony could be outselling the 360 worldwide, by more than they are now, and they aren't. They are potentially losing momentum, and if you don't believe that, I wish you would try to convince me.

Momentum here is meant as a measure of consumption or a measure of demand?

I would assume the latter, but....

Wait, so you didn't see the article I posted where the director of corporate communications directly implied that stock shortages were to blame for loss of sales, and will continue to be over the next few months, because I posted it in the article, and it's clear as day. There is even a link.

As far as you deductions from looking at numbers and trying to judge for yourself which way momentum is swinging, that is just your opinion, isn't it?

I'm fairly certain that many would consider stock shortages a reason for a company to sell less consoles. Wouldn't you? I think it is also reasonable that people who can't find a product might on occasion, buy from a competitor. Furthermore, I think a ton of people on this site would probably agree that Sony has(or had) more momentum very recently than they ever had, and that a reasonable person might conclude that said shortages might indeed effect said momentum?

Is that a satisfactory explination?

Because I think I mentioned all that in the OP.

Good point. I would argue that while momentum is a measure of demand, a certain amount of demand(and along with it, momentum) can be at least influenced, or potentially, redirected, assuming adequate supply is delayed, and thus my thread. To give a relevant example, pent up demand might be redirected to a sexier than ever competitor, due to lack of adequate supply over long time periods. I think we all realize this is at least possible, and in many cases very probable, and rarely inevitable.

In this particular instance, I'm implying that conditions are good for people who are unable to find supply of the PS3(because it's out of stock), to redirect their demand to the competition which has a potentially hot lineup this year, itself. We've seen a small example of that very thing in January NPD, imo, and I am implying that if conditions continue to worsten for PS3 supply, that trend might continue, and thus, demand ratio between the PS3 and 360 would become closer, meaning the momentum advantage of the PS3 might also lower.

Pent-up demand is potentially harmful in terms of sales momentum but we have no way to measure that. I would be more concerned if we had ample supply but waning demand.

This will be a subject worth coming back to when and if the PS3 stops being in short supply.

I agree, perhaps this is a bit premature(but you have to be, when trying to predict trends, hehe).

Either way, it certainly might be worth revisiting soon.

It'll be interesting to see the effects of this, if any, over the coming year.

ps3 and 360 are pretty much selling the same in NA week over week but worldwide ps3 is still selling more week over week for the past 5 or 6 months.

ps3 has an amazing line up this year and so does microsoft , so do yourself a favor buy the other console you dont own.

but just for the insecure ps3 owners sony has already released MAG, white knight and a heavy rain (later) this month and what has microsoft realeased ... just ME2 , i own them all and i can tell you that you will get more hours out of MAG and white knight then you will ME2 , plus the heavy rain demo i have played about 5 times already.

i am going to buy alan wake for sure and maybe halo reach (depending on many many reviews) but as far as anything else im not sure what the 360 has, splinter cell looks good but i havent touched that series in ages .. but for ps3 i already have god of war 3 ordered and heavy rain plus final fantasy 13 on ps3 .. the last guardian .. final fantasy online....im not sure if those will be out this year but ps3 realistically does have the stronger lineup in diversity and quantity.

in the end buy both systems im sure you can find one used somewhere for like 150 bucks i bought my 360 for 300 and i barely use it lol im sure other people are vise versa