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Forums - Sales - My Analysis of the Ps3 Numbers.

well vgc is pretty accurate wit there HW look at shipped vs vgc

360 39m end of 09
ps3 33.5m end of 09
gap is 6.5m shipped

vgc had it at like 6.6m gap then so that seems right

and now the vgc gap is 6.4 which seems about right going by wat the ps3s been selling in jan

so u can still use vgc for ur meetings and all



                                                             

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Since when did VGC had a gap of 6.6 at the end of '09? I Thought it was around 5.8



BHR-3 said:
well vgc is pretty accurate wit there HW look at shipped vs vgc

360 39m end of 09
ps3 33.5m end of 09
gap is 6.5m shipped

vgc had it at like 6.6m gap then so that seems right

and now the vgc gap is 6.4 which seems about right going by wat the ps3s been selling in jan

so u can still use vgc for ur meetings and all

actually, it was like 5.3 at the end of 09, and then the gap kept getting larger and larger every week due to adjustments.



theprof00 said:
Rickz0r said:
theprof00 said:
Rickz0r said:

First off, this thread is not meant as a rant. I always used Vgchartz for my sales numbers, and I always trusted them, and found the numbers to be the most credible (After the Company's themselves ofcourse ). However, after analyzing some of the numbers, I found some looking rather strange. 

Let me start by giving you some facts:

- Sony stated that at the end of 2009 they shipped a total of 33.5 million Ps3's (Just look at their recent financial report)

- Since the beginning of 2010, the Ps3 has sold 1.076.910 units according to Vgchartz.

- This means that there are atleast 34.576.910 units shipped

VGC sold numbers have nothing to do with what Sony says is shipped. What it means is that the 31.65M was 30.58 at the beginning of the year, nothing more.

 

According to Vgchartz, the Ps3 has sold 31,65 million units. This means that there are 2.926.910 units out there, just lying on the shelves. This seems unlikely, due to the normal 'buffer' of consoles is about 1.5 million units (I know this out of experience). Also, there have been recent reports of shortages in the US (Please don't bring me the Baby Seals ^^). Out of personal experience, I can say that about 500 stores in the EU have Ps3 shortages to (The reason that I visit alot of shops, is because it's a part of my Job ^^). It just seems highly unlikely to me, that the remaining stores have that much Ps3's. There could be some reasons for this. It could be because of a Price cut or a other marketing action. But that seems unlikely, since the Ps3 is still being sold against a loss. 

Again, this isn't meant as a rant or insult against Vgchartz. I love the site, and the community. I just wished everyone could be just a little bit more reasonable.

Can anyone give a good explanation about this?

Discuss!


Sony announced 33.5 million Shipped for the end of 2009. It's likely that they kept on shipping Ps3's till now. That's why I just added up the sales numbers to the shipped ones.

You don't know that for sure.

 

Not only does he not know it for sure... it's a silly thing to assume.



there was adj go check thats sucked too b/c i had in my sig for the longest time since dec 08 that the gap would be 5.8 b4 the year ended then it got changed i think maybe ioi is reading my perdictions and changing the #s so that i wont be right all the time u know, same thing with the 1m sold in a week i was the 1st one ever to say that would happen in 09 way back in 08 then i lost that one too

dont mess with ioi he will own u in vgc predictions always look wat he did to crazzyman with 10 week countdown in JP



                                                             

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BHR-3 said:
there was adj go check thats sucked too b/c i had in my sig for the longest time since dec 08 that the gap would be 5.8 b4 the year ended then it got changed i think maybe ioi is reading my perdictions and changing the #s so that i wont be right all the time u know, same thing with the 1m sold in a week i was the 1st one ever to say that would happen in 09 way back in 08 then i lost that one too

dont mess with ioi he will own u in vgc predictions always look wat he did to crazzyman with 10 week countdown in JP

lolol



ioi said:

 

This data includes the following regions:

- USA
- Canada
- Europe

VGC data for the same regions:


Wii PS3 X360
VGC Americas 30.8 12.3 21.4
VGC USA+Can 29.1 11.7 20.2
VGC Total Others 24.9 13.6 14.5
VGC Australia 1.7 0.7 0.9
VGC Other Others 2.2 1.5 2.3
VGC Europe 21.0 11.4 11.3
VGC USA+Can+Europe 50.1 23.1 31.6




Quoted USA+Can+Europe 51.0 23.0 32.0

So if anything, VGC looks a little low on Wii (probably Americas) and maybe 360.

In the case of PS3, we have 23.1m across USA, Canada and Europe, 4.6m in Japan (as backed up by Media Create and Famitsu) and 750k in Australia (backed up by GFK) so that is 28.4m that can be independently verified against other third party data.

The remaining regions are 0.6m in Mexico / South America and 1.5m everywhere else (primarily Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, South Africa, Middle East). It is entirely possible that the 1.5m figure is a little low, same with the figures for 360 and Wii. It is this "other others" region that I will be looking into in the next couple of weeks. We already have some interesting data for Korea and the Middle East (see below) but I want to find some more independent data for the remaining regions before making major adjustments. As it stands at the moment, I expect PS3 sales to maybe gain another half a million once adjustments for other others have been carried out, but it still won't be getting anywhere near close to 33.5m sold-through by the end of 2009...

So can we stop with all of the conspiracy theories, accusations, idiotic posts and try to understand what is being done here - an attempt to make sure that all of our data for this enormous range of different regions is as accurate as possible...

 

South Africa:

Wii - 91,552 (Apr 09)
360 - 72,000 (Nov 08)
PS3 - 45,500 (Nov 08)

 

South Korea (shipments):

NDS: 3m
Wii: 1m
PS2: ~1.5m
PS3: ~250k
360: ~350k

 

India:

 

Russia:

Wow! Not only do I get the best explanation possible, I get it from the big Chief himself! Thanks ioi!

Also @ Red, that was clearly not my intention. If it seems like that, I'll apologize for that. 

Thank you, again, for this clear presentation of the numbers!



Uh yeah no more shipped vs sold threads, its a rule ya know :P
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But what I don't get about this argument, is VGChartz isn't the only one saying this. Other trackers put the PS3 in their respective regions in about the same area. According to NPD, at the end of 2009, about 11.12 million PS3's had been sold in the U.S. VGC total Americas sales at that same time was 12,343,133 which is probably a pretty good representation of the rest of Americas outside of US for PS3 sales. We've seen GFK, Chart Track, and Media Create/Famitsu numbers all come up and either confirm our numbers, we adjust for their numbers (as Nintendo's financial report showed in a few areas which provided their numbers, or our differences between them are minimal.

The point is, the other trackers agree with our numbers. If we are wrong, so are all of they. They are showing this same difference in shipped to sold that we are. The only territories that go unspoken for are of course the ones in Asia and central/south America. And it's hard to think we'd have a large enough discrepancy to be off by that much, and to even think that those markets are even big enough to cause that large difference.

I understand if there is only one source saying something, that we should be a little more skeptical. But there are multiple sources saying similar things to us or within a range where if we said exactly what they said the changes wouldn't matter.


But we are looking at this from to narrow of a view. 360 back at the end of 2006 had 10.4 million shipped and only about 6.75 million of that had been sold. And we understood why that happened. MS needed to hit a certain number that they have promised and they used some common moves by companies to get those sold to retailers or potentially "put in warehouses" kinda thing.

So when looking at Sony's numbers, why have such a narrow view. This kinda thing happened once before where us and the other trackers showed the exact same thing and a large discrepancy existed. I don't like arguing that Sony is trying to deceive us here, but they had numbers they had to hit as well. It's possible they did something like MS did. Even with shortages they could have gone back to their own method of counting ones sold to warehouses for storage rather than actually distributed out to retailers (I looked through their financial report and didn't see the usual asterisk pointing out what the numbers meant). Or they could have done something like MS did.

Hopefully this gives you the answer you were looking for and a little more insight than others have been giving, but I've been saying this for awhile. Not in any defense or attack on anything, but just pointing out the stuff others aren't.



I fully understand u, ioi. It's annoying to see people having flamebaits about figures you worked hard on... All I can say is.. Keep up the good work ^^ . You don't mind if I ask for other explanations in the future?