The Wii exists...runs away.

Seriously though, to decide how well either one will do, you have to bring the Wii into the equation. I mean this isn't the beginning of this gen, it's over 3 years in (4 if you want to go by the launch of the 360). Personally, I feel that it's a little to late to bring in casuals who have not already bought the 360 or PS3. They may bring in a few of them, but the majority aren't going to pay another $300-$400 for a new system and motion controller/camera that doesn't come with it initially.

For the most part, these controllers are going to sell to those who already have the system. This is a reason I think the Arc will fair slightly better (especially if you can play pre-existing games with them). There are quite a few people who already have the PS Eye, I'm one of them. So all I would have to buy is the stand-alone Arc wands, which will probably be ~$50 or $60. People could either get a used PS Eye cheap or buy the bundle, which I can see Sony bundling the wands with the PS Eye and a game for say ~$80-$100. However, I doubt that most of the hardcore shooter fans on the 360 are going to get into Natal, especially when most of the games are going to be going for the casual audience. Even more important is the fact with how much MS is pushing this as new tech, and with R&D added in, I don't see them selling it for much less than $100. It might even be ~$150. Also remember Patcher's original reasoning for why he said it would be ~$50, because "it's just a camera." I doubt he even knows what kind of tech is going in this thing.

Buddies.  You both have blue names and stuff.  I like both of you.  Let's get along.

I think it's too early to tell which will sell better, we have no idea what the price point will be, no idea what the launch line-up will be and no idea how much support each will get.

It's true that Wii won because of the software, not because it had motion controls, just as the iPod or iPhone came out winners, not the hardware but the software behind it. The same will be true about the HD motion systems, whichever company can come up with killer apps built around their respective controller will win.

why do people even quote this guy???


and the relevance of nintendo to the thread should be "Neither will win as both will fail to gain any market share due to the wii's prevalance in this domain"

Sooo well pointed out! I loled hard after reading that quote. My response to that quote is what Nathan Drake would reply. "Thanks for the Update Captain Obvious."

Leave the Wii fans alone. You can't take away their right to brag about sales. It's all they've got.

People. Don't you understand? Nobody fight for first place anymore.
And we all know second place is the best.

I predict the motion control winner. The Wii Remote.

I have the right to say this in this this thread and am not trolling.

The winner certainly won't be one of the other two. Sorry guys and Pachter.

because he ignores the Wii, it seems you need reading comprehension skills when it comes to read my posts. Just because he and other analists ignore the Wii in their blogs or articles doesnt make it right or wrong to talk about the Wii, especially when you talk about MOTION CONTROLL WINNER. Now if he talked about motion controll second place then you would have a point.

The Wii exists and it´s winning deal with it and stop winning.

So, if its a matter of price, does that mean that Wii Motion Plus wins, as it sells for $20?

Before reading the article I knew he was going to favor Natal.