I was hoping Xenoblade would break out

I don't know what it takes for a game to breakout in Japan anymore

MH broke out on PSP but I don't know why

I hope Ninokuni breaks out!

Personally I think people are underestimating The Last Story. If it's a holiday release I think I can see it doing 500k. Its pedigree will help it.

MH broke out because of the multiplayer, I never thought Xenoblade would personally. But tbh, while I think what they're doing with TLS is generally good, I'm not sure it has any qualities that would make it break out as a hit, which is why I say the chance is slim.

Well this is a long thread! PS3 has been outselling Wii for some weeks in Japan now and outsold it ytd as well. But unfortunately I'm not sure PS3 can sustain the Kirby/DK combi with just Move, GT5 and Tales of Graces. If only only SquareEnix could speed up VersusXIII or port DQX to PS3... Wii would vanish in no time.

Ps3 has a few more games than that.  The real question is can Wii sustain itself with three semi big to big games when PS3 has like 90% of the good software.  And I know DKC will be huge, just sayin.

Another week for PS3, and Move hasn't even launched yet in Japan.

You can deny it as much as you like, but PS3 has won Japan, in fact its now Sony land;)

Nah, Wii has more overall sales, even if it is weak right now.  This is an odd gen though, because usually the leader doesn't show weakness.

The only games that have been real breakouts in Japan this gen imo are from Nintendo (Brain Training, Nintendogs, Rhythm Tengoku, Animal Crossing, Wii Sports/Fit, Tomodachi Collection, Cooking Navi, Girl's Mode, etc), Level-5 (Professor Layton, Inazuma Eleven) or Capcom (Monster Hunter).   There's been a few others (the deluge of various Brain Training and Monster Hunter clones, Deca Sports, Magician Quest, etc) but they're all really derivative of the previously mentioned games.

Updated the OP with new Wii releases.

Looks like Nintendo will be firing all of its remaining shots these coming months.

Starting with Super Mario collection Special Pack and Kirby's Epic Yarn in October, then FlingSmash, Wii Remote Plus and Mario Sports Mix in November, Donkey Kong Country Returns in December and The Last Story in January.

Then for 2011 they have Zelda: Skyward Sword, Rhythm Heaven Wii and Fatal Frame. Pikmin and Wii Relax with Vitality Sensor possibly. 2011 looks like Wii's last year on the market in Japan considering third parties are not releasing anymore new games as they are all going to the 3DS, DS, HD or PSP, and PSP2 rumored to be launching in Japan next year as well.