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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gilgamesh's Prediction Spectacular!

OK just finished going through the data and I've come up with my 2010 predictions

Wii: 85.16 million (20 milion sold in 2010)

I expect another great year for the Wii but things will again slow down slightly. The cause may be from the PS Gem and or Natal taking a bit of the casual market. Either way 20 million is a fantastic year. The Wii will surpass the Gameboy Advanced in 2010 (81.47 million) and will be the 3rd highest selling video game console in 2010. (End of 2009 65.16m, incase of adjustments)

PS3: 46.50 million (15 million sold in 2010)

I see the PS3 rising in sales for 2010, it will be it's peak year. All the big exclusives everyones been waiting for in the last 3 years will finally be released and most of them will be system sellers. FFvXIII, God of War III, Final Fantasy XIII (West), Gran Turismo 5, Heavy Rain, Agent, The Last Guardian should all be releasing in 2010. The PS3 will surpass N64 sales in 2010 (32.93 million) and will be the 7th highest selling video game console in 2010. (End of 2009 31.5m)

Xbox 360: 47.05 million (10 million sold in 2010)

The X360 will have a steady year with sales slightly below 2009 sales. 2010 will the be X360's 5 year out on the market and age will begin to takes it's effect, games like Fable III, Halo: Reach, Mass Effect 2 will keep sales going strong for 2010. Natal will be released but I don't see a huge effect coming from it. The Xbox 360 will the 6th best selling video game console in 2010. (End of 2009 37.05m)

Other predictions:

Game sales in 2010

Gran Turismo 5: 5.5 million

Final Fantasy XIII (PS3): 3.5 million

God of War III: 3 million

Heavy Rain: 1.5 million

The Last Guardian will release in 2010 and will sell 1 million for the year.

More

Natal or the PS Gem will not raise hardware sales more then 10% when sales level out.

There will be no price cuts in 2010 for the Wii, X360 or PS3.

3D will have very little effect on PS3 hardware sales.



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my comments on your predictions:

1. You are TOO LOW on Wii, I see a YOY increase as zelda wii, wii relax really take off

2. imo you are TOO HIGH on PS3....I feel it will increase in sales by 1.5 Million to around 13.5 - 14 Million...but who knows, GT5's impact may be hugerer

3. Your about fine on xbox

_______

Game sales:

1. Possibly too low on GT5..depending on its release date

2. FF13 sales....if they are ps360 you are WAY to low

if they are PS3 only you are right on, add japanese ones in & it will have sold 5.5 Million on PS3

3. fine on GOw3

4. cool on HR



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

^PS3 sold 12.8 million in 2009, 1.5 million would be 14.3 million for 2010, that's somewhat close to what I said

and yes FFXIII is PS3 only, I should of clarified that



I agree with your analysis.
3D might not have a huge effect, but don't forget that the FIFA World Cup will also be broadcasted in 3D. That might start up the engine.



At some point, something must have come from nothing...

...nothing can come from nothing...

agree but i think Wii will be a little low.



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Hiko said:
I agree with your analysis.
3D might not have a huge effect, but don't forget that the FIFA World Cup will also be broadcasted in 3D. That might start up the engine.

Don't you need a new TV for that?



Gilgamesh said:
Hiko said:
I agree with your analysis.
3D might not have a huge effect, but don't forget that the FIFA World Cup will also be broadcasted in 3D. That might start up the engine.

Don't you need a new TV for that?

Yes, but I think he means that the World Cup being in 3D could push some 3DTVs, which might then benefit the PS3 when 3D gaming comes to the PS3.



I think the Wii will sell 21 million in 2010.

And imo, I think GT5 is a bit low. If it releases in August, then I could see the game selling 7 million+ by the end of 2010. Just my opinion though.




my predictions are a bit like yours in HW sake as you can see in my sig but in software i think that you are a bit off... HR wont sell that much and GT5 will sell much more... the others are OK... HR will only sell 1 mil and GT5 will sell 7mil...



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