After Modern Warfare 2 shattered all records with its ridiculous opening, it's hard for some people to appreciate NSMB Wii's sales. However, I think it has a shot at making a record of its own - 4 consecutive weeks of selling 1 million copies worldwide, and 5 weeks overall (one in November).

Now, this may sound a little crazy, as not even Wii Sports (bundled with the Wii) has been able to pull this off. As far as I know, only Modern Warfare 2 (PS360 combined) has managed 3 consecutive million selling weeks, while NSMB could have had a shot at 6 (if only it topped 1 million this week!).

Anyway, onto how this is possible (I put guesses in "~").

Japan:

Week 1 is the first week of Dec, Week 2 is the second, and so on. I took Famitsu's numbers for NSMB Wii, and VGC numbers for DS. NSMB Wii shouldn't have too much trouble getting close to these numbers, as NSMB DS wasn't released in the holidays, while the Wii title is. I'm hoping for a rise in the last week, as software seems to sell best that week (going by VGC data).

Americas:

Mario Kart Wii did extremely well last year as it was the main system seller (along with Wii Fit, but it was expensive and out of stock). I expect NSMB Wii to be the Wii equivalent hit this year, so it should do more - the Wii userbase is larger, it's a new release (MKWii was 30+ weeks old), and it will (hopefully) be readily in stock since it doesn't come with any hardware. I threw Galaxy in to show the "holiday title" effect, since it was released around the same time in the US.

Others:

NSMB Wii can do better than Mario Kart Wii here, though I'm not sure it will be to the same extent as in the America's. Mario Kart seems to be a stronger series in Others (see NSMB DS vs Mario Kart DS).

My rough estimates on the minimum sales needed:

I think it's possible, though that last week is definitely a stretch (week 4, ending 26th). Not only must Japan sales rise, but America/Other's sales have to be amazing. It may be possible if this year's Christmas week does better than last, since it has more pre-Christmas days (20th-23rd).

If it sells at the above rate, NSMB Wii will would also be the best selling game December has ever seen, beating 2008's Wii Sports (5.3mil). Few people expect it to make it that high, so I guess the game needs a best case scenario to accomplish the task!

I'll update the numbers if this week's data keeps the dream alive, because if sales drop heavily in any region, its chance is blown. What do you think? Will it make 2, 3, or 4 million selling weeks in December? While 4 is a stretch, 3 is easily possible, which would still give NSMB Wii a record (4 million-selling weeks overall).

edit: Actual sales

Overestimated sales in Others, vastly underestimated it in Japan. After seeing its 3rd week in Japan, that fourth week is all but guaranteed.

jeje interesting. I think 4 millions is a realistic goal for this excellent game =)

With the Japanese buying it by the truckload it seems like a pretty safe bet.

I wouldn't be suprised if it did, and that is incredible.

It's entirely possible and I hope it does.

I think that it's very possible since it's sales are doing extremely well everywhere and not just in one region.

Hrm, no objections yet, I see.

Well, hopefully it won't be long until we get the first week's numbers, I'll wait to see if things change then.

I was thinking it's probably too high in Others, but I had to bump something up to get that 4th million week. It's just hard to imagine America being even higher than I put it, I guess I need to see it to believe it.

Nice to get a response from you though.

I updated the OP with the actual numbers on the bottom... for all 5 of you that are interested.

Anyway, it looks like the game still has a shot - Others and America landed right above my minimum estimates, surprisingly close. I'm wondering which week I'll be off the most on...

I remember doing this same type of thing with Monster Hunter 3 back in August.

Its looking good so far, but I wouldn't doubt what would happen towards Christmas in NA.Stock will probably be drained in many game stores by the time December 25th is over. Wal-Mart especially is promoting the Wii and DS LIKE CRAZY so sales may actually remain consistent (>25% week after week)

In Japan, it was a virtual sell-out with 86% sellthrough first week.