After Modern Warfare 2 shattered all records with its ridiculous opening, it's hard for some people to appreciate NSMB Wii's sales. However, I think it has a shot at making a record of its own - 4 consecutive weeks of selling 1 million copies worldwide, and 5 weeks overall (one in November).
Now, this may sound a little crazy, as not even Wii Sports (bundled with the Wii) has been able to pull this off. As far as I know, only Modern Warfare 2 (PS360 combined) has managed 3 consecutive million selling weeks, while NSMB could have had a shot at 6 (if only it topped 1 million this week!).
Anyway, onto how this is possible (I put guesses in "~").
Japan:
| NSMB Wii | NSMB DS | |
| Week 1 | 936,734 | 910,297 |
| Week 2 | ~320k | 336,052 |
| Week 3 | ~230k | 252,464 |
| Week 4 |
~270k | 207,043 |
Week 1 is the first week of Dec, Week 2 is the second, and so on. I took Famitsu's numbers for NSMB Wii, and VGC numbers for DS. NSMB Wii shouldn't have too much trouble getting close to these numbers, as NSMB DS wasn't released in the holidays, while the Wii title is. I'm hoping for a rise in the last week, as software seems to sell best that week (going by VGC data).
Americas:
| NSMB Wii | Mario Kart Wii | Super Mario Galaxy | |
| Week -1 | 952,279 | 133,068 | 374,987 |
| Week 0 | 598,402 | 263,749 | 169,229 |
| Week 1 | ~370k | 226,121 | 217,252 |
| Week 2 | ~420k | 311,536 | 270,209 |
| Week 3 | ~560k | 401,211 | 544,681 |
| Week 4 | ~390k | 277,258 | 227,552 |
Mario Kart Wii did extremely well last year as it was the main system seller (along with Wii Fit, but it was expensive and out of stock). I expect NSMB Wii to be the Wii equivalent hit this year, so it should do more - the Wii userbase is larger, it's a new release (MKWii was 30+ weeks old), and it will (hopefully) be readily in stock since it doesn't come with any hardware. I threw Galaxy in to show the "holiday title" effect, since it was released around the same time in the US.
Others:
| NSMB Wii | Mario Kart Wii | |
| Week -1 | 294,978 | 204,072 |
| Week 0 | 340,289 | 243,923 |
| Week 1 | ~370k | 286,588 |
| Week 2 | ~410k | 335,784 |
| Week 3 | ~480k | 395,653 |
| Week 4 | ~340k | 276,833 |
NSMB Wii can do better than Mario Kart Wii here, though I'm not sure it will be to the same extent as in the America's. Mario Kart seems to be a stronger series in Others (see NSMB DS vs Mario Kart DS).
My rough estimates on the minimum sales needed:
| Japan | Americas | Others | Total | |
| Week 1 | 930k | 370k | 370k | 1670k |
| Week 2 | 320k | 420k | 410k | 1140k |
| Week 3 | 230k | 560k | 480k | 1260k |
| Week 4 | 270k | 390k | 340k | 1000k |
| Week 5 | 140k | 170k | 180k | 490k |
|
Dec |
1890k | 1910k | 1780k | 5580k |
| 2009 Total |
1890k | 3460k | 2440k | 7790k |
I think it's possible, though that last week is definitely a stretch (week 4, ending 26th). Not only must Japan sales rise, but America/Other's sales have to be amazing. It may be possible if this year's Christmas week does better than last, since it has more pre-Christmas days (20th-23rd).
If it sells at the above rate, NSMB Wii will would also be the best selling game December has ever seen, beating 2008's Wii Sports (5.3mil). Few people expect it to make it that high, so I guess the game needs a best case scenario to accomplish the task!
I'll update the numbers if this week's data keeps the dream alive, because if sales drop heavily in any region, its chance is blown. What do you think? Will it make 2, 3, or 4 million selling weeks in December? While 4 is a stretch, 3 is easily possible, which would still give NSMB Wii a record (4 million-selling weeks overall).
edit: Actual sales
| Japan | Americas | Others | Total | Estimate difference |
|
| Week 1 | 944k | 372k | 370k | 1686k | +16k |
| Week 2 | 454k | 477k | 341k | 1273k | +133k |
| Week 3 | 550k | 590k | 362k | 1503k | +243k |
| Week 4 |
Overestimated sales in Others, vastly underestimated it in Japan. After seeing its 3rd week in Japan, that fourth week is all but guaranteed.
