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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the wii eventally slow down?

Falcon095 on 14 November 2008
megaman79 said:
Falcon095 said:
Everstar said:
thx1139 said:

I dont know. Even my wife just asked for a Wii and Wii Fit for Christmas. My kids (3 boys aged 7,11, and 13) and I have little interest in the Wii, but I am sure there are still people like my wife out there.

 

yeah there is but how many more could there be after this christmas and part of next year?

 

Well according to Wikipedia, at 1999 the World's population was almost 6 billions now let's take the main gaming Regions:

Asia: 3.634 billions

Europe: 729 millions

Latin America and the Caribbean: 511 millions

Northern America: 307 millions

If we put the numbers together are: 5.181 billion

But we know that most of probably most of those people can't have the luxury to own a conosole so let's subtract 9/10 from that, now the numbers are: 518 millions

And we know that not even the half of that will be interested on a gaming system so let's subtrack 1/2 from those numbers, now we have something like 250 millions

Now let's subtrack the Wii's that have been sold which are 36 millions, and 3/4 of the HD's that have been sold which are 30 millions, so the numbers are 184 millions

Let's subtract 15 million (possible Wii's numbers of this christmas) and the final numbers are 169 millions.

There could be around 170 millions after this christmas!

This "study" obviously don't show the real numbers (mainly because i underestimated many things) but you get the point.

 

With emerging middleclass primarily in India and China, the worlds most populus countries, they have pushed up the price of meat, oil, minerals, etc. 9/10 is an overstatement i think.

BTW lol, but your correct, Nintendo know that all these un tapped markets are gonna run at the Wii big time.

 

 

 Yeah, i know but i wanted to make it as low as i could (so there wouldn't be excuses) and like you said, i'm pretty sure that Nintendo know that there's a huge market that they can appeal :P 



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The_vagabond7 on 14 November 2008

The sales of the wii will never slow down, but in fact continue to increase as Nintendo ups shipment, the numbers will grow ever more massive until people start owning two or three wiis, and then as it hits mass market prices two or three will be purchased with every trip to the shopping mart. And then in the year 2497 the numbers will begin to reflect mathematical impossibilities, VGchartz will show that an infinite number of wii's are sold on a weekly basis. Neogaf will call foul on VGchartz, but the truth will be known. Reality has a Nintendo bias.



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peachbuggy on 14 November 2008

@ Megaman 79.
I don't think the Wii has launched in China or India yet but when it does... yes i expect to see an explosion! of Wii sales in 'others/others'.



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tabsina on 14 November 2008
Everstar said:

i mean i know it will eventally but what i really mean is are people going to eventally start going with the HD consoles rather then the wii. The wii is just insane everyone knows that but imo sometime in the next year i think we will see the PS3 and 360 start to outsell it on a weekly bases.

Your thoughts?

As fishyjoe said in one of the first few replies.. people outside of the small group of 'elite' gamers do not really care about graphics as much as you do. Sure, they can tell the difference between N64 and PS3 graphics, but they are satisfied with what the wii offers graphically.. (lets say for arguments sake, the wii outputs the exact same tech as ps2, no more no less) .. 120mil people were satisfied with PS2 graphics.. and now suddenly, those graphics are impossible to handle for the few percent who went on to buy a hd console

One proof from this gen, which may not be a fair comparison, but i think it is personally, given the same markets. The DS started out very much like the wii, little support from developers, big interest from "casual" gamers. Now, 80 million consoles later, it is still selling double the PSP on a weekly basis (this week it was triple), despite the obvious graphical/tech improvements it has over the DS.

 



megaman79 on 14 November 2008

peachbuggy said:
@ Megaman 79.
I don't think the Wii has launched in China or India yet but when it does... yes i expect to see an explosion! of Wii sales in 'others/others'.

Release dates and pricing

Release date and suggested retail price by region*
Region Expected pricing at release Release
date		 Accessories
Release Price Approx. USD Equivalent Wii Remote Nunchuk Classic Controller
 United States US$249.99[8] $249.99 November 19, 2006 $39.99 $19.99 $19.99
 Canada CAD$279.83[9] $265.31 C$44.99 C$24.99 C$24.99
 Mexico MXN$4,499 $410 ($355†) MXN$699 MXN$349 MXN$349
 Panama PAB B/.299 $299 PAB B/.49.99 PAB B/.29.99 PAB B/.29.99
 Guatemala QtzQ3,499 $450 ($375†) - - -
 Colombia COP$1,099,000[10] $480 ($410†) - - -
 Peru PENS/.1,499[citation needed] $465 ($390†) - - -
 Chile CLP$219,900[11] $440 ($360†) CLP$34,900 CLP$14,900 CLP$14,900
 Brazil R$2,399§[12] $1,110 ($274†) R$299.00 R$199.00 -
 Japan JP¥25,000[13] $215* ($205†) December 2, 2006 ¥3,800 ¥1,800 ¥1,800
 Australia AUD$399.95[14] $315 ($285†) December 7, 2006 AU$69.95 AU$29.95 AU$29.95
 New Zealand NZD$499.90[15] $340 ($305†) NZ$99.95 NZ$49.95 NZ$49.95
 Italy €259[16] $340 ($285†) €39.99 €19.99 €19.99
 Switzerland SFr 399‡[17] $330 ($310†) SFr. 69.90 SFr. 34.90 SFr. 34.90
 Croatia HRK 2099.99 - December 8, 2006 HRK 399.98 HRK 199.99 HRK 199.99
Europe €249‡[18] $330 ($275†) €39.99 €19.99 €19.99
 United Kingdom GB£179‡ $350 ($300†) £29.99 £14.99 £14.99
 Hungary HUF 70,000[19] $360 ($300†) - - -
 Ireland €259 $340 ($285†) €44 €25 €25
 Denmark DKK 2,199[citation needed] $390 ($310†) 449 kr. 249 kr. 249 kr.
 Russia RUB 9,900‡[20] $380 ($335†) 1999 RUB 1499 RUB 999 RUB
 Norway NOK 2,499[21] $385 ($310†) 399 kr 249 kr 249 kr
 Sweden SEK 2,699‡[citation needed] $393 ($310†) 479 kr 299 kr 299 kr
 Iceland ISK 29,990[22] $440 ($335†) 5990 kr 2990 kr 2990 kr
 Finland €269.90[23] $355 ($290†) €49.90 €29.90 €29.90
 Turkey YTL 799.90 $550 ($466†) - - -
 Spain €249‡[24] $330 ($285†) December 9, 2006 €41,95 €19,95 €19,95
 Singapore SGD499.00 $330 April 25, 2007 SGD69.00 SGD39.00 SGD39.00
 South Africa ZAR 2899 $410 ($360†) September 28, 2007 [25] ZAR 475.00 ZAR 239.00 ZAR 239.00
 Argentina ARS2399[26] $760 March, 2008 ARS 320 ARS 200 ARS 190
 Malaysia RYM 1399 $410 ($360†) - RYM 139.00 RYM 69.00 RYM 69.00
South Korea KR₩220,000 $220 April 26, 2008 [27] ₩28,000[28] ₩15,000[28] ₩15,000[28]
Taiwan NT$ 8,500 $280 July 12, 2008 [29] NT$ 1,050 NT$ 525 NT$ TBA
 China CNY TBA CNY TBA Late 2008[30] CNY TBA CNY TBA CNY TBA
 Egypt EGP TBA TBA TBA EGP TBA EGP TBA EGP TBA
 India INR 19,990[31] September 30, 2008 INR TBA INR TBA INR TBA



---- There you go



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

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megaman79 on 14 November 2008
tabsina said:
Everstar said:

i mean i know it will eventally but what i really mean is are people going to eventally start going with the HD consoles rather then the wii. The wii is just insane everyone knows that but imo sometime in the next year i think we will see the PS3 and 360 start to outsell it on a weekly bases.

Your thoughts?

As fishyjoe said in one of the first few replies.. people outside of the small group of 'elite' gamers do not really care about graphics as much as you do. Sure, they can tell the difference between N64 and PS3 graphics, but they are satisfied with what the wii offers graphically.. (lets say for arguments sake, the wii outputs the exact same tech as ps2, no more no less) .. 120mil people were satisfied with PS2 graphics.. and now suddenly, those graphics are impossible to handle for the few percent who went on to buy a hd console

One proof from this gen, which may not be a fair comparison, but i think it is personally, given the same markets. The DS started out very much like the wii, little support from developers, big interest from "casual" gamers. Now, 80 million consoles later, it is still selling double the PSP on a weekly basis (this week it was triple), despite the obvious graphical/tech improvements it has over the DS.

 

 

People forget about the PC's advantage over PS2, it didnt matter

 



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

Avinash_Tyagi on 14 November 2008

The problem is people still think like long term gamers when analyzing the market, most people aren't , they don't care about 1080P or Blu-ray or any such things, they care about quick fun, something they can play for a little while and then move on to the rest of their day, the Wii has that in spades, this is why there won't be any move away fro mthe Wii to the PS3 and 360, at best the PS3 and 360 will be the "other system" in the house



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Everstar on 14 November 2008
Avinash_Tyagi said:
The problem is people still think like long term gamers when analyzing the market, most people aren't , they don't care about 1080P or Blu-ray or any such things, they care about quick fun, something they can play for a little while and then move on to the rest of their day, the Wii has that in spades, this is why there won't be any move away fro mthe Wii to the PS3 and 360, at best the PS3 and 360 will be the "other system" in the house

 

 

idk what your talking about here but the wii is the "other system" as you say in my home



Proud Owner of  a Wii and Xbox 360 and a PS3(When I get the money)

megaman79 on 14 November 2008

yea but i take it if your married with kids, you are wrong and they are right. the wii is not the other system in their eyes



“When we make some new announcement and if there is no positive initial reaction from the market, I try to think of it as a good sign because that can be interpreted as people reacting to something groundbreaking. ...if the employees were always minding themselves to do whatever the market is requiring at any moment, and if they were always focusing on something we can sell right now for the short term, it would be very limiting. We are trying to think outside the box.” - Satoru Iwata - This is why corporate multinationals will never truly understand, or risk doing, what Nintendo does.

scottie on 14 November 2008
Everstar said:

i mean i know it will eventally but what i really mean is are people going to eventally start going with the HD consoles rather then the wii. The wii is just insane everyone knows that but imo sometime in the next year i think we will see the PS3 and 360 start to outsell it on a weekly bases.

Your thoughts?

 

 

Ok, I'll help you out with something. Generally, the 3rd year of a console is where it sees it highest sales. This means that the Wii is likely to sell more in the next year than it has this past year.

 

Following the same logic, the 360 will likely sell less next year than this year.

 

As for the PS3. If it couldn't beat the Wii in the 'year of the PS3' its certainly not gonna beat it in 2009