Below is a post I made another thread about end of year predictions. It states all I need for this thread. Basically Wii needs to sell 46m to break the 50% barrier and that has to seen as unlikely now.

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Below is my WW predictions.

*2007 date range = 13th of Oct to 5th of Jan. Using:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS3&reg2=All&cons3=X360&reg3=All&start=39369&end=39453&weekly=1

**My prediction would be through week of 4th of Jan 2009.

------------PS3----------

2007* = 4,002,066 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 15.90m sold.

2009** without any increase in YoY = 19,902,066 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 20,102,169 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 20,302,272 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 20,702,479 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 21,502,892 sold.

So, basically Sony should sell about 20 million consoles by end of this year as I don't think they would possibly have more than a 10% increase on sales compared to last year. There are some better games this year, but there is no price drop. I bet they get about a 5-7% gain on YoY.

----------360----------

2007* = 3,769,945 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 21.44m sold.

2009** without any increase in YoY = 25,209,945 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 25,398,442 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 25,586,939 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 25,963,934 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 26,717,923 sold.

Even with the 360 discount and a solid game release, it would still be highly unlikely to see greater than a 20% increase in YoY sales. So I would peg 25m as my prediction.

----------Wii----------

2007* = 7,030,839 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 33.41m sold.

2009** without any increase in YoY = 40,440,839 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 40,792,380 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 41,143,922 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 41,847,006 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 43,253,174 sold.

Keeping in mind that NoA stated that Nintendo will have 50% more supply this year as compared to last. Most of us have taken that to only mean NA supply and not WW, so WW would probably be guaranteed 20-30% increase in YoY if demand still meets supply as it did last year.

With that I would peg Wii at around 42m by years end. Throughout this year I have pegged it at 45m, so it is now a little lower than my expectations, however, IF I was wrong and the 50% increase is actually WW not just NA it will definitely be over 45m.

Nope, it won't. It'll be like at 49.5 or something. 360 should be at 26, 26.5 PS3 should be somewhere between 20 - 21.5, and Wii should be 45 million on the dot.

So it should miss the mark by at least 1 million, but at most, 2.5 million.

Funny considering I had been saying that since about early 2008 haha. Oh well people believe what they want I suppose.

I hope that Wii will never get 50%. Im a fan of improved graphiced capable consoles :)

Errrrr..... I never thought it would this year..... Am still thinking if it would next year......

Congradulations.  I'm sure you and shallow opinions will get you far in life.  now what does this have to do with the 50% markethshare predictions.

Next year without a doubt. Even on slow weeks Wii has been selling more than PS360 combined. Its just a matter of when, not if.

But... but... what about improved graphiced capable consoles?

You forget one variable, a terrible christmas for the HD gaming. I'm not telling it will happen but who knows.