Below is a post I made another thread about end of year predictions. It states all I need for this thread. Basically Wii needs to sell 46m to break the 50% barrier and that has to seen as unlikely now.
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Below is my WW predictions.
*2007 date range = 13th of Oct to 5th of Jan. Using:
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii®1=All&cons2=PS3®2=All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=39369&end=39453&weekly=1
**My prediction would be through week of 4th of Jan 2009.
------------PS3----------
2007* = 4,002,066 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 15.90m sold.
2009** without any increase in YoY = 19,902,066 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 20,102,169 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 20,302,272 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 20,702,479 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 21,502,892 sold.
So, basically Sony should sell about 20 million consoles by end of this year as I don't think they would possibly have more than a 10% increase on sales compared to last year. There are some better games this year, but there is no price drop. I bet they get about a 5-7% gain on YoY.
----------360----------
2007* = 3,769,945 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 21.44m sold.
2009** without any increase in YoY = 25,209,945 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 25,398,442 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 25,586,939 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 25,963,934 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 26,717,923 sold.
Even with the 360 discount and a solid game release, it would still be highly unlikely to see greater than a 20% increase in YoY sales. So I would peg 25m as my prediction.
----------Wii----------
2007* = 7,030,839 sold.
As of Oct 11th = 33.41m sold.
2009** without any increase in YoY = 40,440,839 sold.
2009** with 5% increase in YoY = 40,792,380 sold.
2009** with 10% increase in YoY = 41,143,922 sold.
2009** with 20% increase in YoY = 41,847,006 sold.
2009** with 40% increase in YoY = 43,253,174 sold.
Keeping in mind that NoA stated that Nintendo will have 50% more supply this year as compared to last. Most of us have taken that to only mean NA supply and not WW, so WW would probably be guaranteed 20-30% increase in YoY if demand still meets supply as it did last year.
With that I would peg Wii at around 42m by years end. Throughout this year I have pegged it at 45m, so it is now a little lower than my expectations, however, IF I was wrong and the 50% increase is actually WW not just NA it will definitely be over 45m.
