I'm predicting Switch is going to sell more systems this year in Japan than any system ever has before. The current record for a calendar year is the DS in 2007 which sold 8,403,838 systems according to VGChartz. Basically Switch needs to sell 8.41m or more.
Currently Switch is at 3,211,465 after 31 weeks. It's up 75% compared to last year at this point. It needs to finish with at least a 89% increase YoY in order to break the record. Here is why I think it will do it:
1) Animal Crossing is selling like it's going to become the best selling game in Japan of all time. It isn't going to just barely take the title either. It's on track to break the record by several million. Also, it will likely break the record by the end of the year. Software sells hardware. Breaking the software record is going to lead to breaking this hardware record.
2) Ring Fit Adventure is another title that is selling a significant amount of hardware. Japan is the region where both Animal Crossing and RFA are the most popular (relative to population).
3) There are severe hardware shortages in Japan. There are actually hardware shortages for Switch in several regions, but they are most severe in Japan. There is a ton backed up demand there.
I do think Nintendo is going to really amp up shipments to every region in the next few months, but I expect Japan to especially devour the Switch shipments sent there. Switch shipments are going to stay high for the rest of the year and it will go on to beat the DS's annual record in Japan, the territory where handheld systems are the most popular.Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 13 August 2020