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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: Switch will break the annual sales record, Japan 2020

         

Will Switch break the annual sales record in Japan?

Yes 9 $4,175.00 52.94%
 
No 8 $3,290.00 47.06%
 
 
Totals: 17 $7,465.00  
Game closed: 12/01/2020

I'm predicting Switch is going to sell more systems this year in Japan than any system ever has before.  The current record for a calendar year is the DS in 2007 which sold 8,403,838 systems according to VGChartz.  Basically Switch needs to sell 8.41m or more.

Currently Switch is at 3,211,465 after 31 weeks.  It's up 75% compared to last year at this point.  It needs to finish with at least a 89% increase YoY in order to break the record.  Here is why I think it will do it:

Reasons:

1) Animal Crossing is selling like it's going to become the best selling game in Japan of all time.  It isn't going to just barely take the title either.  It's on track to break the record by several million.  Also, it will likely break the record by the end of the year.  Software sells hardware.  Breaking the software record is going to lead to breaking this hardware record.

2) Ring Fit Adventure is another title that is selling a significant amount of hardware.  Japan is the region where both Animal Crossing and RFA are the most popular (relative to population).

3) There are severe hardware shortages in Japan.  There are actually hardware shortages for Switch in several regions, but they are most severe in Japan.  There is a ton backed up demand there.  

I do think Nintendo is going to really amp up shipments to every region in the next few months, but I expect Japan to especially devour the Switch shipments sent there.  Switch shipments are going to stay high for the rest of the year and it will go on to beat the DS's annual record in Japan, the territory where handheld systems are the most popular.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 13 August 2020

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I cant agree or disagree until I know their lineup for the rest of the year. If all they have is pikmin, then I would say no. Obviously that wont happen but we dont know exactly so I have to hold off on answering.



MasonADC said:
I cant agree or disagree until I know their lineup for the rest of the year. If all they have is pikmin, then I would say no. Obviously that wont happen but we dont know exactly so I have to hold off on answering.

I do think there are more games coming this year, but in Japan this factor may not matter.  There are severe shortages there just based on Animal Crossing and RFA.



Actually, dude. The record is the DS in 2006 - 8,403,838 systems.



Going all in on yes



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PAOerfulone said:
Actually, dude. The record is the DS in 2006 - 8,403,838 systems.

This was the first thing that came to my mind after I had read the first paragraph of the OP: He got the wrong number.

Makes it an easy "no, the prediction will not come true."



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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PAOerfulone said:
Actually, dude. The record is the DS in 2006 - 8,403,838 systems.

My mistake.  I know it peaked worldwide in 2008, but I didn't check the 2006 Japan numbers.  I'll change the OP to reflect this.  I still think Switch will break the record.



Forgot to reply, I was the first ‘no’ vote.

I already thought the former number was too much, though I hesitated a bit, but 8+ is definitely too much. I don’t see it.



Jan-July Switch is behind DS 2006 Japan sales by quite a lot.

Jan - July 2006 = 4.3m DS's sold
Jan - July 2020 = 3.2m Switch's sold.

It ain't gonna happen.



I think it won't because they are not planing a big strike for this holidays, which is coherent with their forecast staying unchanged even after 2 insane first financial quarter.
They nailed it for the first fiscal year half, and they will temper a bit with probably a Q3 a bit weaker than last year.



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