Switch will win in the US, probably lifetime. It'll obviously win in Japan too, it's the European sales that are going to let it down and hold it back from winning globally.
PS4 may have a chance to win NPD years for 2019 vs 2022, 2020 vs 2023 with it's sale spread over a longer period. Relatively switch will be more front loaded I think, like most Nintendo consoles. But this and the next 2 years NPD should be in the bag for Switch.
Back in 2016,.... the US was still fully behinde the xbox, and it was giveing competition to the PS4.
It didn't change after 2016. In fact 2017 while selling 0.2m more in USA was actually worse considering how strong global sales were in 2017. The xbox competition in USA never really stopped
2016 - 29.1% of PS4 Sales in USA
2017 - 26.5% of PS4 Sales in USA
2018 - 29.4% of PS4 Sales in USA
In 2018 PS4 sold 5.28m while XBO sold 4.31m, It's not a massive gap. PS4/XBO cannibalise each others sales and while in most regions it's PS4 crushing the XBO in the USA they are both reasonably close and limiting each others sales.
Last edited by Barkley - on 05 July 2019
LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m
2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m