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Forums - Sales - New reliable figure signalizes that psv is hugely overtracked! The error wouldn't be so big, if the huge adjusting up (due to a misapprehension) back in April had been avoided!PSV/PSP figures inside!

Now more compelling evidence!

 

Cesa White Paper Report 2015! http://www.cesa.or.jp/index.php/en CEZA is a trustworthy source, is a video games market researching well-known Japanese firm, with insiders for every Japanese company!

 PSV 9.76m shipped as of December 2014! (Estimation of sell-in)

PSP figure is not updated but from IGN interview with a sony executive, it's slipped out from him that psp is  at 82m as of 31th March 2015!

PSP LT sales indicates that psv is heavily overtracked now due to the huge adjsutment up of april! While previously, Vgc wasn't really undertracking it or maybe it was overtracking it moderately!   

A figure that had led me to this extrapolation:  (From a previous thread about same topic)

PSP LTD shimpents were 76.3m and psv LTD  shipments were at 1.8m  as of March 31th 2012(FY11 Q4) Then sony started combining psp/psv shimpnets...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=473601

They were 7m psp/psv/vita tv shipped in FY12(Ending on March 31th 2013) http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/fr/12q4_sonypre.pdf

They were 4.1m psp/psv/vita tv shipped in FY13(Ending on March 31th 2014) http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/fr/13q4_sonypre.pdf

They  were 3.3m psp/psv/vita tvn shipped in FY14(Ending on March 31th 2015) http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/fr/14q4_sonypre.pdf

A total of 14.4m psp/psvita/vita tv in these three fiscal years!76.3m+1.8=78.1+14.4=92.5 psp+psv+vita tv

And finally we have the LT about psp 82m (maybe rounded)... http://www.ign.com/articles/2014/11/17/vita-sales-are-picking-up-thanks-to-ps4-remote-play    

'Discussing an experience he had recently in Tokyo, in which he was given one of the last 30 PSPs ever manufactured as a present (there are 82 million PSPs in the wild), Layden suggested that because Vita hasn't followed PSP's "hockey stick" sales spike, many people assume it's in trouble. PSP, he said, was a "slow burn" over time that brought it to that number following its spike early on.'' Layden, as well as a Sony PR representative present during the interview, declined to talk specific sales numbers for Vita (this demonstrates,that he had been asked for both psp/psv shipments, but only gave an answer for psp, the reason is apparent. ) 

Layden also talked about how he owns one of the last 30 PSPs ever manufactured. It is also stated that lifetime shipments for the PSP have hit 82 million worldwide (by the notorious,vgc writer,trunkswd-william d'angelo who undestands too,that the 82m is not a random thing by ign but it was said by layden since he was asked about it, ign wouldn't tell anything if they weren't informed about  it otherwise they would use the last known/outdated number, to wit 80m as of November '13)  http://www.vgchartz.com/article/252180/playstation-vita-sales-picking-up-due-to-ps4-remote-play-psp-shipments-top-game-boy-advance/    

 


 

92.5m-82m(psp)=10.5m psv/vita tv shipped as of March 31th 2015 ( on the april 11th '15 here,it gets adgusted-up in an immense extend,jumping from 10.35m to 11.65m...)

And here are some excerpts from my thread about psv being hugely overtracked because of  a misguided adjustment up of 1m, following the news that it has  sold 600k in spain back in April!

(From a previous thread about same topic)

Vgc has psv at 10.3 as of March 28th, 10.35m as of April 4th, then ioi adjusts it up by 1.3m of which the 1m went in europe, to bring it to 11.6m as of the 11th April. After the news that psv has shipped 600k units in spain, ioi surmised that he hadn't tracked that, the LTD before the adjustment in europe was 3m.

The huge european markets: the uk, France, and Germany were summing up 1.2m, leaving 1.8m for the rest of Europe, which is acceptable for a bad perfoming platform in general!  We can believe that the 600k sales of Spain or the most of it was there, even if it was tracked inadvertently!

Ioi past that fact, pressured and influenced by a specific member who was trying for a long time to persuade him to adjust it up, by insisting on that psv is a big seller to fairly smaller european markets such as chezh republic, belgium e.t.c  (well it is in spain, something that dazzled many people because is more by 70k by the sales in the uk, by 100k than sales in france, and by 300k than sales in Germany, from what vgc demonstrates, a tracking firm though proved right vgc for the uk/france numbers!)

In spite of Spain being a way smaller market than uk, psv manages to be surprisingly robust there, a sign that sony's playstation big brand strength (which in spain must  be very stronge) applies to the handheld in spain's market!

Because of  these developments ioi considered that he undertracked it in other secondary european markets too.)   

That reared a suspicious result, to wit, Europe, being psv best selling territory, instead of Japan, where it has game support+ the merit of handheld market dominance, while in the old continental has the absolute nothing....

I don't really blame that member, because psv was looking quite undertracked in the beggining!

Eventually, ioi succumbed and adjusted it up heavily, while he was tracking it almost perfectly or moderately overtracking it...  

  

UPD:  A recent reliable report shows that PSV shipments are estimated to be at 9.76m  as of December 2014! Sony shipped 450k psp+psv in FY14 Q4 , that implies that psv is at 10.2m and less by that time (that quarter was psp's end of life quarter, we can pretty easily assume that the majority of the number  represents psv, like 400k, so I come into conclusion that psv must be at 10.16m by that time, not 10.5m as I had extrapolated, based on the psp 82m, which was evenetually really rounded, the accurate number is 82.3m... 

NEW OP:


Yeah, psv has sold 446k in France by the end of 2014 and 600k as of June 2015 in spain, so it has truly sold more in spain than in france despite the market size difference, but that fact wasn't meaning that it was undertracked in other european countries... Vgc has it at 468k at france by that time interval, good tracking!

http://www.latribune.fr/technos-medias/20150210trib562875d47/jeux-video-retour-a-la-croissance-pour-un-marche-francais-tire-par-les-consoles.html  

Now to 9.76m figure of shipments by the end of 2015! Sony had shipped 450k psp+psv in FY14 Q4, which  implies, that psv is at 10.2m and less by that time (that quarter was psp's end of life quarter, so we can pretty easily assume that the majority of the figure represents psv, possibly 400k!  That puts psv to be at 10.16m by that time, not 10.5m as I had extrapolated on a previous thread based on the psp 82m...

Which is finally being proved to be really a rounded number as the source pointing out, and that is more than 82m, (82.3m)!

Also global sales from it's launch till January 2013 were at 4m vs 4.4m of vgc!

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jan/04/playstation-2-manufacture-ends-years It's overtracked by 400k since 2013!

http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/41301/Global/  

Ioi had psv at 10.3m as of March 31th, while the shipments were at 10.16m (before adjusting up by 1.3m ->11.6m, most of it went in europe), ergo he was moderately overtracking it! Apparently, it's thr surplus of 400k which comes from 2013.  

The tracking was decent, the adjustment up ruined it though! Usually vgc errors aren't huge, and there are succesful/perfect or aprroximate numbers, but this kind of error can't be ignored! Mostly, the issue is the adjustment back in April...

In consequence, psv was likely at 9.9m units sold by March 31th  with 300k units on the shelves, reasonable, for it's selling rate...



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twintail said:
Compelling, official figure, fact.

PSP sales not updated.


Yeah, but you have them from sony executive, and actually, it's right that 82m is rounded, because psp is more than 82m, it's at 82.3m!



You're not a native english speaker, right?



NewGuy said:
You're not a native english speaker, right?


Noooo, apparently! :P What I must fix?



tak13 said:
NewGuy said:
You're not a native english speaker, right?


Noooo, apparently! :P What I must fix?


I just found it hard to understand and follow your OP. Keep practicing though. Practice makes perfect!



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You don't even need that IGN interview anymore, it just verifies it (if the 9.76M are true).

EDIT: wait, I didn't see that the 9.76M is until the end of 2014.

But yeah, PSP is over 82M.



NewGuy said:
tak13 said:


Noooo, apparently! :P What I must fix?


I just found it hard to understand and follow your OP. Keep practicing though. Practice makes perfect!


That's happening when I make  a wall of text, or messing up with some maths/calculations, then I don't pay  so much attention to make my op conherent!

I understand you... The op is intricate, but just read the last paragraph!



episteme said:

Assuming that the 9.76 are correct, but where exactly is it from?



episteme said:
You don't even need that IGN interview anymore, it just verifies it.

76.4 +1.8 + 7 + 4.1 + 3.3 = 92.6
92.6 -9.76 Vitas = 82,84 PSPs

Assuming that the 9.76 are correct, but where exactly is it from?


ooops! Episteme, psp is 82.3m

You missed the last quarter, FY14 Q4 (JAN-MARCH 2015) psp+psv 450K (most of it represents psv, since it's the final quarter of psp) ! :P

PSV is at 9.76m as of FY14 Q3 (OCT-DEC 2014)



tak13 said:


ooops! Episteme, psp is 82.3m

You missed the last quarter, FY14 Q4 (JAN-MARCH 2015) psp+psv 450K (most of it represents psv, since it's the final quarter of psp) ! :P

PSV is at 9.76m as of FY14 Q3 (OCT-DEC 2014)

Yes, I edited it because I forgot one quarter for Vita. But the "around 82M" for PSP is basically confirmed now.