One really good thing that came from the PS4's success is that Sony no longer cares about hiding the PS3's slowing shipments. For each quarter since the PS4's launch, they have revealed the PS4+PS3's shipments, as well as the PS4's shipments on its own. So, using those numbers, let's illustrate how the PS3 is undertracked.
First, we have the announcement at the start of Nov '13 that the PS3 has shipped 80M units. Ignoring the rest of the quarter, for now, and adding up the following quarter shipments (700K/800K/800K/1.1M) since the 80M, that puts the PS3 shipments at 83.4M. Now, let's go back to that quarter we skipped. For that quarter, the PS3 shipped 3.3M. Considering the announcement most likely didn't include any shipments in Nov, since it was "as of Nov 2nd," that leads me to believe that the vast majority of that 3.3M came from Nov and Dec. My guess is that Oct accounted for maybe 400K of that, which leaves 2.9M for Nov and Dec. This brings the total shipments to 86.3M. Given that PS3 sales are slowing down, and it's sales aren't nearly as big in the US and UK as the 360's, I'd estimate that ~800K is a reasonable amount to have in the supply chain. This would mean sales should really be ~85.5M, for an undertracking of ~900K.
Now, let's look at the 360, and why I believe it is also undertracked and remains 3rd. Seece recently made a thread claiming the 360 was undertracked by ~1.5M. Without really looking into the numbers, as well as assuming AMD's nearly 30M number was shipped, I agreed. However, after actually taking the time to look into it, I think he's wrong. And the biggest reason is that AMD's number was actually sellthrough. Now, IDG recently came out and stated that sales for the two had surpassed 29M. Taking the PS4's 18.5M+ from that gives you 10.5M left for the XBO, which implies that VGC has it overtracked by ~300K. However, some believe that VGC is spot on, which may be the case, so I'll be using their 10.8M.
According to Seece's thread, the XBO and 360 have shipped 98.8M combined. I haven't looked into that exact number, but I am sure he would know. Ok, so now we have to figure out how many units are in the supply chain. We have been getting reports, and then having those reports backed up, by several mod approved members on Gaf stating that they are seeing stuffed channels for the XBO, while supply for the PS4 seems normal. Some saying that a few stores have enough to last them 2 or more months. This leads me to believe that MS has put more into the supply chain than Sony's 1.4M for the PS4. If this info is consistant for most stores, this could put supply at ~2M-2.5M. Since it's an advantage for the 360, I'm going to use 2M.
So, subtract the ~12.8M XBOs shipped from the 98.8M and we get 86M for the 360. Or 300K less than the PS3's 86.3M. I would also imagine MS has put a little more 360 out in the supply chain, as they are oft to do, than the PS3. I would guess 1M in the supply chain after the Christmas season in two countries that the 360 still does well in (age considered), US/UK, sounds about right. So, the 360 is also undertracked, ~600K by my estimation.
Thoughts?
old skool
