Things to take into consideration......

•  It's a Naughty Dog game. They have a great reputation, and this game will probably get high review scores and critical acclaim.

•  It's a Naughty Dog game, so Sony will most likely advertise it atleast a little bit.

•  It's a New IP releasing at the end of PS3's prime lifecycle

•  Will it release during the 2012 Holiday season? If not, they will miss out on tons of sales in what will be PS3's last big holiday season before PS4 is launched in 2013. 

•  How will the legs be? Once again, with next-gen consoles coming out in 2013 the hype for anything else will get drowned out by the PS4 and NextBox announcements. 

•  No multiplayer, or very limited multiplayer at best (Horde Mode?).

•  It's rated M for Mature which can cut into sales (according to David Jaffe) since younger kids wont be allowed to buy it, and parents might not want to buy it for them due to the rating. Sure COD and GTA get away with it, but those are proven sales juggernauts. 

•  This game will probably be a center piece of Sony's E3 show, along with God of War IV

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Therefore I think it will settle in the 3m range. 4.5m at most, if it comes out this year and wins some GOTY awards.

Hmmm this is a tough one.

I'm thinking it's going to be very critically acclaimed and will be fairly accessible. It doesn't seem too hardcore.

I say it'll sell like other single-player PS3 exclusives with immense critical acclaim (GoW3, UC2, MGS4). I think this was the team that made Uncharted 2, so the developers are definitely talented with a good view of the market.

Lifetime sales will be anywhere between 2 & 5 million i think. (big window, I know). First Week sales will be fairly low I guess.

Metascore will also be important,

If 93+: Then it'll sell 4-5m
If 90-93: Then it'll sell 3-4m
If it's high 80s: Then it'll sell 2-3m

No more than 5m, unless it has some form of multiplayer (L4D type maybe?) or the story mode is very lenghty (which I doubt).

I'm hoping it reviews very well & has a very good survival multiplayer mode. I can see it being very successful if so.

I think the game is confirmed to have some form of multi-player isn't it?

Anyway, I think Uncharted has really generated a new level of popularity and interest in anything Naughty Dog related, both within the industry and from consumers. So I can see the media giving the game a lot of focus and I can also see Sony really getting behind it with some strong marketing.

So with a lot of things looking favorable for it, I would say it will really come down to the quality of the game and replay value it holds.

My guess would be around the 3 million mark. Which would be very successful for a new IP. I'm wondering if they're hoping to make it a franchise, or is it purely being pushed as a standalone game.

I think you put wayyyy too much stock into meta.

Most gamers only check IGN, Gamespot, GameTrailers, and a few others. 

i think the only smart rediction at this stage would be similar to uncharted 3. we dont even know anything About the game yet

Funny how you critisize my comparisons but dont offer one of your own. 

Gameplay wise it will probably be closer to Resident Evil. But thats a bad comparison because RE dates all the way back to the original PSone and was multiplatform. BTW being PS3 exclusive is another thing TLOU has in common with Drakes Fortune and Heavy Rain. 

Uncharted 3 was the sequel to a game that has sold 5.5million units. I think its a horrible comparison, as The Last of Us is a new IP and doesnt have the name recognition or proven fanbase like Uncharted. 

It also wont have multiplayer like Uncharted. 

AND The Last of Us is rated M for Mature which can cut into sales (according to David Jaffe) since younger kids wont be allowed to buy it, and parents might not want to buy it for them due to the rating. Ofcourse COD and GTA can get away with that, but those are proven sales juggernauts.

Where did they confirm no multi? I remember an interview where they said it'll be in there.

"No Network Play" according to Sonys official website.