I think Microsoft is in a much better position than most people give them credit for. They have, far and away, the most R&D/Acquisition money to spend on games and studios. So, overnight, their standing as far as first/second party exclusives could increase just by tossing some cash around.
OP: I would have agreed with you yesterday, but I'm not so sure today. As companies start developing and improving their own game engines(like Frostbite and Crystal Tools), then synching them up to the various CPU's out there, in lieu of paying companies like Epic, I think costs might come down. Also, as the hardware gets easier to code for(PS3, Wiimote), devs will spend less time troubleshooting and more time doing actual coding. Would it be enough to make an exclusive profitable for a 3rd party company? I don't know. I lean more towards 'no' right now...but it might be possible. That would be my uninformed guess.
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