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Onyxmeth said:

Nintendo can't win E3 by announcing first party titles. People expect those.

I think you are underestimating the affection people have for those Nintendo franchises. It certainly can't win E3 with one or two such announcements, but announce a bunch of them, especially if one or more are new IPs, and one is BIG - ala Zelda using the 1:1 controller? Not saying it'd be easy, but doable, if the list was long enough and, more importantly, they showed truly impressive gameplay footage (ie a new Zelda couldn't look like Ocarina, part 3).

I think many people are overlooking just how workmanlike the MS conference was prior to the FF Megaton. No question at all the FF Megaton will be next to impossible to top as the single biggest moment of the conference, but that's one game, maybe 2 years away.  MS did a decent job - it secured its areas of strength (shooters, online), made a clumsy but not completely embarassing attempt to reach the Wii audience, and had one massive surprise. All in all, I'd give them good but beatable B or B-, but without FF13, it would have been a full letter grade lower.

It won't be very hard for Nintendo or Sony to whip out a presentation able to out *wow* the first 95% of the MS conference (or were you really moved by avatars and Lips?).  I think, in the end, the company that will be declared victor will be the one that leaves the most people excited for what's coming in the next year. If Sony or Nintendo can put together a presentation that is more solid and entertaing from beginning to end, they can beat MS, no question.  

That said, someone usually flops each year. It doesn't appear to be Microsoft. That means either Sony or Nintend fans are going to be very disappointed, or gamers will be looking at one of the better E3s in a long while (at least in terms of presentation).